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Soybean field. File photo.
COLUMBIA, Mo. – The latest Soybean Growth Monitoring Yield Prediction report from University of Missouri Extension predicts drastic shifts to lower soybean yields due to a lack of rainfall.
MU Extension soybean agronomy specialist Andre Reis says the latest yield predictions have averaged 3-6 bushels per acre lower than in the previous report.
“August 2025 was the second-driest August on record, with only 0.79 inches of statewide average rainfall,” says Zachary Leasor, MU Extension state climatologist.
According to Leasor, the U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri released on Sept. 4 shows that 93.68% of Missouri is at least abnormally dry following an unusually wet spring. The southeastern and southwestern parts of Missouri are hardest hit, but the rest of the state except for northwestern Missouri is showing emerging signs of drought.
Related story: More than 90% of state in drought as harvest nears
The yield model now points to below-average results for most of the state, especially for soybean fields planted after April 26. Early planted soybeans are less affected since the drought onset occurred late in the seed-filling stage. Soybean crops in northwestern Missouri also are less affected, but soil water content has been depleted nearly statewide, says Reis.
Reis urges growers to consider anticipating harvest operations.
“Soybeans in drought-affected areas will senesce earlier, and seed moisture will decline rapidly,” he says.
The predictions show yield variances for different scenarios of maturity groups and planting dates across the entire state.
The Soybean Growth Monitoring Tool uses crop growth models to simulate soybean development and yield, integrating both historical and current weather data.
Its main goal is to help farmers understand how weather conditions throughout the current season are influencing crop development and attainable yield. For example, the reports indicate whether the 2025 season is trending above or below average, allowing farmers to anticipate yield outcomes well before harvest.
These forecasts support in-season decision-making by providing timely insights into crop performance, Reis says.
The forecast tool is released twice a month by the Soybean Farming Systems Research and Extension team, with support from the Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council.
Missouri is the nation’s seventh-largest producer of soybean with 5,800,000 acres. Average yield in Missouri ranges from 43 to 53 bushels per acre, depending on the year. Missouri’s top four soybean-producing counties are in the southeast: New Madrid, Mississippi, Stoddard and Pemiscot.