Missouri Farmland Values

Editor’s note
See the County Land Value Estimator spreadsheet (XLSX) for related information.

Ryan Milhollin
Assistant Extension Professor, Agricultural Business and Policy

Individuals and businesses often need an estimate of the value of a parcel of land. A professionally conducted appraisal generally provides the most accurate assessment of land value. Appraisals estimate value by analyzing comparable sales, which should be located nearby, have occurred recently, and share similar characteristics with the subject property.

However, obtaining an appraisal is not always practical, particularly when a historical land value is needed. Historical valuations are often required for tax calculations, estate settlements, and other legal or financial purposes. In cases where an appraisal is unavailable or impractical, estimates derived from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data may serve as an acceptable alternative.

USDA agricultural land values

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) collects and reports information on the market value of agricultural land and buildings. Conducted every five years, the Census of Agriculture seeks responses from all farmers and reports the market value of farmland, including buildings, for each county in the census year. Table 1 presents the average market value of farmland, including buildings, by Missouri county from past Census of Agriculture reports.

In addition to the census, USDA annually updates the statewide average market value of agricultural land. These estimates are based on surveys of a sample of farmers, real estate professionals, and others with direct knowledge of agricultural land sales. Unlike the census, these reports do not provide county-level estimates. Instead, the USDA’s annual land values summary reports statewide values for five land classes: farm land, including buildings; all cropland; nonirrigated cropland; irrigated cropland; and pastureland. Because these land classifications are not reported at the county level in the Census of Agriculture, direct county comparisons are not available. Table 2 presents the average market value of these agricultural land classes in Missouri from 1951 to the present.

Understanding USDA data

Understanding some characteristics of the USDA agricultural land value estimates is important for individuals and businesses wishing to use them for business purposes. From 1850 through 1996, USDA reported a single annual estimate of farmland value, including buildings, for each state. Beginning in 1997, USDA expanded its reporting to include separate estimates for agricultural land classes that exclude building values.

Every five years, in the Census of Agriculture, USDA reports farmland, including buildings, for each county. Houses, barns, sheds and other buildings on the land are included in the reported asset value. The reported value combines all agricultural land types, including irrigated cropland, nonirrigated cropland, and pastureland, into a single countywide estimate.

USDA estimates represent average values for an entire county or state and do not account for differences among individual parcels. Land values within a county can differ substantially because of factors such as soil productivity, land use, irrigation, development potential, and proximity to transportation corridors or urban areas. Because these factors are not reported, the estimates may not provide an acceptable value for an individual parcel of land.

Although USDA estimates may not accurately represent the value of a specific property, they provide a reliable measure of long-term trends in agricultural land values. Because the methodology is consistent over time, the annual changes reported are likely to reflect what happens on individual land parcels. However, changes over time may cause the values of certain parcels of land to differ from the USDA reported average. For example, land 20 miles out of city limits may have been considered for only agricultural purposes in 1970. By 2022, urban expansion may have brought that property closer to city limits, increasing demand for residential development and raising its value well above the county or state average.

The Census of Agriculture values are most useful for estimating specific land values because they provide county-level estimates. The annual survey data of state land values by type is helpful for observing trends in land values in the years between censuses. The reported values for different agricultural land classes in Missouri closely track the farmland, including buildings, value, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.95 to 0.99. A coefficient of 1.0 indicates perfect correlation.

Because county estimates represent averages, they are most applicable to properties that closely resemble the county’s predominant land type. Properties that differ substantially from the county average, such as all-pasture acreage in a primarily cropland county, may have market values that are significantly higher or lower than the reported USDA estimate.

Estimating historical values

When a historical estimate of land value is needed for a specific parcel or area, it is generally best to begin with county-level data from the Census of Agriculture. Because these county data are reported only every five years, methods have been developed to estimate values for the intervening years.

One common approach assumes that the annual percent change in the state-reported value of farmland, including buildings, reflects the percent change in land values within each county. Under this assumption, the state’s annual percent change can be applied to county-level values for years in which county data are unavailable.

The steps outlined below describe how a county-level land value estimate can be calculated for any year.

Step 1: Identify the Census of Agriculture that most recently precedes the year for which you want to estimate a land value.

Step 2: Locate the county agricultural land value reported in that Census of Agriculture (see Table 1).

Step 3: Locate the Missouri agricultural land values for both the census year and the year of interest (see Table 2).

Step 4: Calculate the percent change in the Missouri agricultural land value between the census year and the year of interest:

• Percent change = (value in year of interest ÷ value in census year) – 1

Step 5: Apply the percent change calculated in Step 4 to the county value from Step 2 to estimate the county value for the year of interest:

• County land value in year of interest = county land value in census year × (1 + percent change)

For example, to estimate the value of agricultural land in Adair County in 2010, follow these steps:

Step 1: Use the 2007 Census of Agriculture, the closest census conducted before 2010.

Step 2: Find the reported value for Adair County in the 2007 Census: $1,862 (from Table 1).

Step 3: Find the Missouri statewide agricultural land values: $2,170 in 2007 and $2,270 in 2010 (from Table 2).

Step 4: Calculate the statewide percent change: (2,270 ÷ 2,170) − 1 = 4.6%.

Step 5: Apply this percent change to the Adair County value: $1,862 × 1.046 = $1,948.

Accounting for land quality differences

In some cases, a more accurate estimate of historical land value is needed than can be obtained from the county average alone. This is particularly true when a parcel has characteristics that cause its value to differ substantially from the county average. Factors such as proximity to a town, access to irrigation, land productivity, or other unique attributes may justify adjusting the county-level estimate.

The estimated county land value can be adjusted to account for these differences using the following steps.

Step 6: Obtain an appraisal of the land’s market value. An appraisal completed at any time may be used, although more recent appraisals are generally preferred. Exclude the value of buildings so that only land value is considered.

Step 7: Estimate the county land value for the year in which the appraisal was done using Steps 1 through 5.

Step 8: Calculate the percent difference between the appraised value and the estimated county land value:

• Percent change = (appraisal value ÷ estimated county land value) − 1

Step 9: Apply the percent change calculated in Step 8 to the county land value in the year of interest (from Step 5):

• Adjusted land value = county land value × (1 + percent change)

Spreadsheet tool

The County Land Value Estimator (XLSX) developed to accompany this guide contains the data from Tables 1 and 2 and includes a tool for estimating land values. Users can select a county and year to generate estimated values for that location. The estimates can be adjusted to better reflect the characteristics and market value of a specific parcel of land.

Table 1. Average market value (in dollars per acre) of farmland and buildings for Missouri counties.

Table 2. Missouri state average values for various classes of agricultural land (in dollars per acre).

Original authors: Ronald L. Plain and Joyce White