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Wednesday, June 03, 2009
02:08 PM

 

Post Harvest Marketing Strategies for Wheat
Returns To Storage
Basis and Cash Prices from March Futures
Southeast Missouri Cash Prices
July 1 - March 1
Monthly
The tables give the returns from on farm storage based on changes in basis, cash prices, and futures from June 15 to July 1 through March 1, monthly.  The returns are in cents per bushel based on 8.0% interest and 1 cent per month for on farm storage. 
Returns to Storage from the Change in Basis from June 15 Change in March Futures Prices from June 15
Returns to Storage from a Change in Cash Price from June 15 Updated June 3, 2009

  Wheat Basis Returns from June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Basis
SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*
March Futures
                   
  7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1
  Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis
  Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return
  Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm
Year Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008-09 12 30 17 27 50 127 130 134 172
2007-08 14 0 -38 5 37 28 6 25 9
2006-07 -5 -28 -2 42 42 41 41 35 35
2005-06 -2 -20 -33 -56 -13 13 5 7 3
2004-05 3 -5 11 6 27 47 48 47 40
2003-04 -10 -17 -12 -14 -19 11 -1 6 13
2002-03 -9 -24 -11 0 14 12 15 21 11
2001-02 6 6 11 14 23 44 45 37 39
2000-01 11 -8 1 15 27 38 35 36 41
1999-00 -5 -18 -21 1 12 27 27 23 25
1998-99 -8 -13 -23 -21 -15 -4 -5 -3 -2
1997-98 -11 -9 -9 -9 -8 11 8 7 -7
1996-97 8 26 20 16 -3 20 13 7 3
1995-96 19 6 -12 -17 -3 20 11 12 1
1994-95 -9 -15 -16 -18 -16 -5 9 4 -1
1993-94 7 6 -10 -21 -4 -4 -4 5 -5
1992-93 -14 -22 -30 -28 -26 -6 -5 -12 -25
1991-92 -18 -31 -24 -28 -40 -55 -64 -66 -76
1990-91 -1 -7 0 0 -3 15 17 15 15
1989-90 5 13 21 30 12 29 31 20 14
1988-89 5 22 14 18 21 35 40 34 34
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave 0 -6 -8 -3 5 20 18 18 15
15 Yr Ave 1 -6 -8 -1 10 29 26 27 25
10 Yr Ave 2 -8 -8 4 20 39 35 37 39
7 Yr Ave 1 -9 -10 1 20 40 35 39 40
5 Yr Ave 5 -5 -9 5 29 51 46 50 52
3 Yr Ave 7 1 -7 25 43 65 59 65 72

 

Wheat Cash Price Returns From June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Cash Price
 SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*
                   
  7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1
  Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash
  Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return
  Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm
Year Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008-09 -18 -68 -132 -221 -307 -285 -199 -242 -273
2007-08 -5 32 142 345 216 284 300 347 481
2006-07 23 -8 26 94 140 151 107 84 92
2005-06 2 -18 -53 -49 -36 -21 -5 -10 10
2004-05 -14 -41 -26 -56 -32 -33 -28 -39 -8
2003-04 -13 20 39 27 26 89 75 62 60
2002-03 18 22 62 93 117 81 37 38 22
2001-02 1 12 14 -4 26 36 42 29 14
2000-01 -4 -31 -20 -5 -4 12 7 2 4
1999-00 -15 -2 -19 -12 -17 -18 -22 -16 -24
1998-99 -10 -46 -69 -52 -27 -29 -41 -48 -72
1997-98 -27 10 28 -13 1 2 -30 -18 -46
1996-97 -4 -31 -38 -71 -140 -109 -104 -139 -130
1995-96 51 65 39 74 93 106 111 121 108
1994-95 -34 -26 9 38 20 21 43 13 -9
1993-94 13 24 5 -2 24 46 67 70 34
1992-93 -15 -53 -47 -40 -29 -3 -6 5 -14
1991-92 -32 -27 -10 5 12 2 26 71 21
1990-91 -2 -55 -69 -74 -81 -76 -74 -78 -71
1989-90 1 -3 4 13 -8 16 19 -26 -18
1988-89 18 7 23 34 36 42 68 55 62
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave -4 -11 -6 4 0 13 16 11 9
15 Yr Ave -3 -7 0 12 5 19 20 12 15
10 Yr Ave -3 -8 3 21 13 29 32 26 38
7 Yr Ave -1 -9 8 33 18 38 41 34 55
5 Yr Ave -2 -21 -8 23 -4 19 35 28 60
3 Yr Ave 0 -15 12 73 16 50 70 63 100

 

Change in March Futures Prices from June 15

 

Change in  March Wheat Futures from 6/15
                   
  7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1
  Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures
  Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns
                   
Year   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008-09 -30 -98 -149 -248 -357 -412 -329 -376 -445
2007-08 -19 32 180 340 179 256 294 322 472
2006-07 28 20 28 52 98 110 66 49 57
2005-06 4 2 -20 7 -23 -34 -10 -17 7
2004-05 -17 -36 -37 -62 -59 -80 -76 -86 -48
2003-04 -4 35 49 38 41 73 70 49 39
2002-03 27 46 73 93 103 69 22 17 11
2001-02 -5 6 3 -18 3 -8 -3 -8 -25
2000-01 -15 -23 -20 -20 -31 -26 -28 -34 -37
1999-00 -10 16 2 -13 -29 -45 -49 -39 -49
1998-99 -2 -33 -46 -31 -12 -25 -36 -45 -70
1997-98 -16 19 37 -4 9 -9 -38 -25 -39
1996-97 -12 -57 -58 -87 -137 -129 -117 -146 -133
1995-96 32 59 51 91 96 86 100 109 107
1994-95 -25 -11 25 56 36 26 34 9 -8
1993-94 6 18 15 19 28 50 71 65 39
1992-93 -1 -31 -17 -12 -3 3 -1 17 11
1991-92 -14 4 14 32 51 56 89 136 96
1990-91 -1 -48 -69 -74 -78 -91 -91 -93 -86
1989-90 -4 -16 -17 -17 -20 -13 -12 -46 -32
1988-89 13 -15 9 16 15 7 28 21 28
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave -4 -5 2 7 -5 -7 -2 -7 -7
15 Yr Ave -4 -2 8 13 -6 -10 -7 -15 -11
10 Yr Ave -4 0 11 17 -8 -10 -4 -12 -2
7 Yr Ave -2 0 18 31 -3 -3 5 -6 13
5 Yr Ave -7 -16 0 18 -32 -32 -11 -22 9
3 Yr Ave -7 -15 20 48 -27 -15 10 -2 28

 

David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist

University of Missouri Extension David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu
Farm Management Specialist
Last modified: June 03, 2009