Post Harvest Marketing Strategies for Wheat July 1

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Post Harvest Marketing Strategies for Wheat Returns To Storage Basis and Cash Prices from March Futures Southeast Missouri Cash Prices July 1 - March 1 Semimonthly
The tables give the returns from on farm storage based on changes in basis, cash prices, and futures from June 15 to July 1 through March 1, semimonthly. The returns are in cents per bushel based on 8.0% interest and 1 cent per month for on farm storage.
Returns to Storage from the Change in Basis from June 15	Change in March Futures Prices from June 15
Returns to Storage from a Change in Cash Price from June 15	Updated June 3, 2009

Wheat Basis Returns from June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Basis
SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*
March Futures

	7/1	7/15	8/1	8/15	9/1	9/15	10/1	10/15	11/1	11/15	12/1	12/15	1/1	1/15	2/1	2/15	3/1
	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis	Basis
	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return
	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm
Year	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage
-----	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
2008-09	12	35	30	29	17	7	27	30	50	105	127	138	130	102	134	148	172
2007-08	14	-11	0	-31	-38	-7	5	11	37	37	28	3	6	-16	25	-4	9
2006-07	-5	-19	-28	-16	-2	29	42	49	42	43	41	50	41	24	35	39	35
2005-06	-2	-13	-20	-7	-33	-60	-56	-53	-13	3	13	6	5	13	7	7	3
2004-05	3	12	-5	-3	11	9	6	41	27	49	47	40	48	42	47	44	40
2003-04	-10	0	-17	-12	-12	-27	-14	-10	-19	0	11	10	-1	-3	6	2	13
2002-03	-9	-7	-24	-33	-11	-7	0	17	14	22	12	14	15	20	21	20	11
2001-02	6	14	6	3	11	20	14	30	23	36	44	43	45	39	37	36	39
2000-01	11	5	-8	-6	1	8	15	28	27	37	38	36	35	32	36	39	41
1999-00	-5	-16	-18	-35	-21	-6	1	9	12	19	27	25	27	24	23	27	25
1998-99	-8	-8	-13	-14	-23	-22	-21	-18	-15	-12	-4	-2	-5	0	-3	-9	-2
1997-98	-11	-9	-9	-9	-9	-16	-9	-6	-8	5	11	12	8	6	7	-4	-7
1996-97	8	26	26	23	20	14	16	-36	-3	20	20	13	13	7	7	6	3
1995-96	19	19	6	-7	-12	-20	-17	-4	-3	-1	20	17	11	15	12	16	1
1994-95	-9	-9	-15	-22	-16	-13	-18	-12	-16	-7	-5	7	9	-2	4	1	-1
1993-94	7	-7	6	3	-10	-26	-21	-7	-4	0	-4	-3	-4	-3	5	-2	-5
1992-93	-14	-11	-22	-27	-30	-31	-28	-27	-26	-23	-6	-6	-5	-11	-12	-15	-25
1991-92	-18	-19	-31	-27	-24	-27	-28	-37	-40	-46	-55	-57	-64	-70	-66	-68	-76
1990-91	-1	0	-7	-4	0	0	0	-7	-3	3	15	20	17	11	15	7	15
1989-90	5	18	13	11	21	28	30	25	12	21	29	30	31	30	20	18	14
1988-89	5	9	22	22	14	8	18	21	21	21	35	38	40	38	34	28	34
-----	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
20 Yr Ave	0	0	-6	-9	-8	-7	-3	1	5	16	20	20	18	13	18	15	15
15 Yr Ave	1	1	-6	-9	-8	-6	-1	5	10	24	29	28	26	20	27	25	25
10 Yr Ave	2	0	-8	-11	-8	-3	4	15	20	35	39	37	35	28	37	36	39
7 Yr Ave	1	-1	-9	-11	-10	-8	1	12	20	37	40	37	35	26	39	37	40
5 Yr Ave	5	1	-5	-6	-9	-4	5	16	29	47	51	47	46	33	50	47	52
3 Yr Ave	7	2	1	-6	-7	9	25	30	43	62	65	64	59	36	65	61	72

Wheat Cash Price Returns From June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Cash Price
SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*

	7/1	7/15	8/1	8/15	9/1	9/15	10/1	10/15	11/1	11/15	12/1	12/15	1/1	1/15	2/1	2/15	3/1
	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash	Cash
	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return	Return
	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm	Farm
Year	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage	Storage
-----	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
2008-09	-18	-48	-68	-37	-132	-184	-221	-334	-307	-281	-285	-282	-199	-269	-242	-276	-273
2007-08	-5	-6	32	44	142	249	345	243	216	203	284	348	300	295	347	403	481
2006-07	23	0	-8	-12	26	28	94	183	140	135	151	133	107	77	84	81	92
2005-06	2	6	-18	-19	-53	-79	-49	-58	-36	-30	-21	-31	-5	-14	-10	3	10
2004-05	-14	-8	-41	-52	-26	-21	-56	-6	-32	-12	-33	-35	-28	-39	-39	-35	-8
2003-04	-13	-4	20	51	39	5	27	3	26	82	89	67	75	53	62	48	60
2002-03	18	23	22	32	62	90	93	108	117	102	81	62	37	26	38	49	22
2001-02	1	26	12	4	14	11	-4	17	26	32	36	34	42	46	29	16	14
2000-01	-4	-21	-31	-33	-20	-27	-5	12	-4	5	12	-3	7	13	2	3	4
1999-00	-15	-38	-2	-32	-19	-12	-12	-16	-17	-12	-18	-31	-22	-8	-16	-4	-24
1998-99	-10	-24	-46	-35	-69	-54	-52	-26	-27	-24	-29	-43	-41	-38	-48	-72	-72
1997-98	-27	-16	10	4	28	-1	-13	8	1	-3	2	-15	-30	-29	-18	-51	-46
1996-97	-4	17	-31	-24	-38	-81	-71	-131	-140	-98	-109	-96	-104	-109	-139	-140	-130
1995-96	51	70	65	27	39	52	74	92	93	78	106	109	111	86	121	133	108
1994-95	-34	-32	-26	-15	9	16	38	40	20	21	21	31	43	18	13	5	-9
1993-94	13	3	24	22	5	-16	-2	17	24	42	46	61	67	79	70	67	34
1992-93	-15	-16	-53	-65	-47	-53	-40	-35	-29	-13	-3	-8	-6	7	5	-15	-14
1991-92	-32	-42	-27	-22	-10	-2	5	-1	12	-5	2	19	26	35	71	32	21
1990-91	-2	-25	-55	-51	-69	-64	-74	-83	-81	-87	-76	-68	-74	-98	-78	-91	-71
1989-90	1	-4	-3	9	4	3	13	12	-8	9	16	21	19	9	-26	-17	-18
1988-89	18	6	7	20	23	24	34	45	36	31	42	57	68	58	55	42	62
-----	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
20 Yr Ave	-4	-7	-11	-10	-6	-7	4	2	0	7	13	14	16	7	11	7	9
15 Yr Ave	-3	-4	-7	-7	0	-1	12	9	5	13	19	17	20	7	12	11	15
10 Yr Ave	-3	-7	-8	-6	3	6	21	15	13	22	29	26	32	18	26	29	38
7 Yr Ave	-1	-5	-9	1	8	13	33	20	18	28	38	37	41	18	34	39	55
5 Yr Ave	-2	-11	-21	-15	-8	-1	23	6	-4	3	19	27	35	10	28	35	60
3 Yr Ave	0	-18	-15	-2	12	31	73	31	16	19	50	66	70	34	63	69	100
*Returns based upon 8.0% interest and 1 cent/month for farm storage

Change in March Futures Prices from June 15

Change in March Wheat Futures from 6/15

	7/1	7/15	8/1	8/15	9/1	9/15	10/1	10/15	11/1	11/15	12/1	12/15	1/1	1/15	2/1	2/15	3/1
	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures	Futures
	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns	Returns

Year	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
2008-09	-30	-83	-98	-66	-149	-191	-248	-364	-357	-386	-412	-420	-329	-371	-376	-424	-445
2007-08	-19	5	32	75	180	256	340	232	179	166	256	345	294	311	322	407	472
2006-07	28	19	20	4	28	-1	52	134	98	92	110	83	66	53	49	42	57
2005-06	4	19	2	-12	-20	-19	7	-5	-23	-33	-34	-37	-10	-27	-17	-4	7
2004-05	-17	-20	-36	-49	-37	-30	-62	-47	-59	-61	-80	-75	-76	-81	-86	-79	-48
2003-04	-4	-5	35	61	49	30	38	9	41	77	73	51	70	50	49	39	39
2002-03	27	30	46	65	73	97	93	91	103	80	69	48	22	6	17	29	11
2001-02	-5	12	6	1	3	-9	-18	-13	3	-4	-8	-9	-3	7	-8	-20	-25
2000-01	-15	-26	-23	-27	-20	-35	-20	-16	-31	-32	-26	-39	-28	-19	-34	-36	-37
1999-00	-10	-22	16	3	2	-6	-13	-25	-29	-31	-45	-56	-49	-32	-39	-31	-49
1998-99	-2	-16	-33	-21	-46	-32	-31	-8	-12	-12	-25	-41	-36	-38	-45	-63	-70
1997-98	-16	-7	19	13	37	15	-4	14	9	-8	-9	-27	-38	-35	-25	-47	-39
1996-97	-12	-9	-57	-47	-58	-95	-87	-95	-137	-118	-129	-109	-117	-116	-146	-146	-133
1995-96	32	51	59	34	51	71	91	96	96	78	86	92	100	71	109	117	107
1994-95	-25	-23	-11	7	25	29	56	52	36	28	26	24	34	20	9	4	-8
1993-94	6	10	18	19	15	10	19	24	28	42	50	64	71	82	65	69	39
1992-93	-1	-5	-31	-38	-17	-22	-12	-8	-3	10	3	-2	-1	18	17	0	11
1991-92	-14	-23	4	5	14	25	32	36	51	41	56	76	89	105	136	100	96
1990-91	-1	-25	-48	-47	-69	-64	-74	-76	-78	-90	-91	-88	-91	-109	-93	-98	-86
1989-90	-4	-22	-16	-2	-17	-25	-17	-13	-20	-12	-13	-9	-12	-21	-46	-35	-32
1988-89	13	-3	-15	-2	9	16	16	24	15	10	7	19	28	20	21	14	28
-----	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
20 Yr Ave	-4	-7	-5	-1	2	0	7	1	-5	-9	-7	-6	-2	-6	-7	-9	-7
15 Yr Ave	-4	-5	-2	3	8	5	13	4	-6	-11	-10	-11	-7	-13	-15	-14	-11
10 Yr Ave	-4	-7	0	6	11	9	17	0	-8	-13	-10	-11	-4	-10	-12	-8	-2
7 Yr Ave	-2	-5	0	11	18	20	31	7	-3	-9	-3	-1	5	-8	-6	1	13
5 Yr Ave	-7	-12	-16	-10	0	3	18	-10	-32	-44	-32	-21	-11	-23	-22	-12	9
3 Yr Ave	-7	-20	-15	4	20	21	48	1	-27	-43	-15	3	10	-2	-2	8	28

David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist

David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu
Farm Management Specialist
Last modified: June 03, 2009