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Wednesday, June 03, 2009
02:07 PM

 

Post Harvest Marketing Strategies for Wheat
Returns To Storage
Basis and Cash Prices from December Futures
Southeast Missouri Cash Prices
July 1 - December 1
Semimonthly
The tables give the returns from on farm storage based on changes in basis, cash prices, and futures from June 15 to July 1 through December 1.  The returns are in cents per bushel based on 8.0% interest and 1 cent per month for on farm storage.  
Returns to Storage from the Change in Basis from June 15 Change in December Futures Prices from June 15
Returns to Storage from a Change in Cash Price from June 15 Updated June 3, 2009

  Wheat Basis Returns from June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Basis
SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*
December Futures
                       
  7/1 7/15 8/1 8/15 9/1 9/15 10/1 10/15 11/1 11/15 12/1
  Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis Basis
  Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return
  Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm
Year Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008 12 35 31 32 19 7 27 27 49 103 123
2007 19 -2 -2 -31 -42 -4 14 31 60 59 51
2006 -3 -18 -6 -14 1 30 43 35 47 48 46
2005 -1 -11 -18 -5 -31 -57 -53 -49 -8 8 18
2004 6 16 -1 2 15 13 11 46 33 53 52
2003 -8 1 -14 -11 -9 -22 -9 -5 -12 8 19
2002 -11 -5 -18 -26 -7 -6 1 20 8 17 14
2001 6 11 5 4 8 18 12 25 19 34 38
2000 12 8 -3 -1 4 12 19 32 32 41 43
1999 -3 -14 -15 -32 -17 -1 7 13 17 24 31
1998 -8 -7 -11 -12 -21 -20 -19 -16 -12 -9 -1
1997 -7 -5 -3 -2 -2 -7 0 2 2 15 22
1996 7 25 26 21 17 9 2 -46 -8 12 5
1995 12 9 -2 -12 -18 -20 -13 -1 -1 -2 10
1994 -9 -5 -12 -18 -13 -9 -12 -5 -8 2 5
1993 4 -7 3 -1 -13 -29 -22 -12 -13 -8 -9
1992 -12 -10 -18 -21 -23 -25 -28 -30 -30 -27 -16
1991 -17 -18 -29 -29 -28 -29 -30 -41 -48 -49 -64
1990 -2 -1 -5 -2 5 8 6 0 5 13 24
1989 2 13 12 10 17 22 21 16 9 19 23
1988 7 12 26 25 17 12 23 26 28 28 37
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave 0 1 -4 -8 -7 -5 -1 2 7 18 22
15 Yr Ave 2 2 -3 -7 -6 -4 2 7 15 28 32
10 Yr Ave 3 2 -4 -8 -6 -1 7 18 25 40 43
7 Yr Ave 2 2 -4 -8 -8 -6 5 15 25 42 46
5 Yr Ave 7 4 1 -3 -7 -2 8 18 36 54 58
3 Yr Ave 9 5 8 -5 -7 11 28 31 52 70 73
*Returns based upon 8.0% interest and 1 cent/month for farm storage          

 

Wheat Cash Price Returns From June 15

Return to Storage From Change in Cash Price
 SEMO Cash Wheat Barge Prices 6/15*
                       
  7/1 7/15 8/1 8/15 9/1 9/15 10/1 10/15 11/1 11/15 12/1
  Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash
  Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return Return
  Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm
Year Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage Storage
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008 -18 -48 -68 -37 -132 -184 -221 -334 -307 -281 -285
2007 -5 -6 32 44 142 249 345 243 216 203 284
2006 23 0 -8 -12 26 28 94 183 140 135 151
2005 2 6 -18 -19 -53 -79 -49 -58 -36 -30 -21
2004 -14 -8 -41 -52 -26 -21 -56 -6 -32 -12 -33
2003 -13 -4 20 51 39 5 27 3 26 82 89
2002 18 23 22 32 62 90 93 108 117 102 81
2001 1 26 12 4 14 11 -4 17 26 32 36
2000 -4 -21 -31 -33 -20 -27 -5 12 -4 5 12
1999 -15 -38 -2 -32 -19 -12 -12 -16 -17 -12 -18
1998 -10 -24 -46 -35 -69 -54 -52 -26 -27 -24 -29
1997 -27 -16 10 4 28 -1 -13 8 1 -3 2
1996 -4 17 -31 -24 -38 -81 -71 -131 -140 -98 -109
1995 51 70 65 27 39 52 74 92 93 78 106
1994 -34 -32 -26 -15 9 16 38 40 20 21 21
1993 13 3 24 22 5 -16 -2 17 24 42 46
1992 -15 -16 -53 -65 -47 -53 -40 -35 -29 -13 -3
1991 -32 -42 -27 -22 -10 -2 5 -1 12 -5 2
1990 -2 -25 -55 -51 -69 -64 -74 -83 -81 -87 -76
1989 1 -4 -3 9 4 3 13 12 -8 9 16
1988 18 6 7 20 23 24 34 45 36 31 42
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave -4 -7 -11 -10 -6 -7 4 2 0 7 13
15 Yr Ave -3 -4 -7 -7 0 -1 12 9 5 13 19
10 Yr Ave -3 -7 -8 -6 3 6 21 15 13 22 29
7 Yr Ave -1 -5 -9 1 8 13 33 20 18 28 38
5 Yr Ave -2 -11 -21 -15 -8 -1 23 6 -4 3 19
3 Yr Ave 0 -18 -15 -2 12 31 73 31 16 19 50
*Returns based upon 8.0% interest and 1 cent/month for farm storage          

 

Change in December Futures Prices from June 15

Change in  December  Wheat Futures from 6/15
                       
  7/1 7/15 8/1 8/15 9/1 9/15 10/1 10/15 11/1 11/15 12/1
  Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures Futures
  Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns
                       
Year   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2008 -30 -83 -99 -69 -151 -191 -248 -361 -356 -384 -408
2007 -24 -4 34 75 184 253 331 212 156 144 233
2006 26 18 -2 2 25 -2 51 148 93 87 105
2005 3 17 0 -14 -22 -22 4 -9 -28 -38 -39
2004 -20 -24 -40 -54 -41 -34 -67 -52 -65 -65 -85
2003 -6 -6 32 60 46 25 33 4 34 69 65
2002 29 28 40 58 69 96 92 88 109 85 67
2001 -5 15 7 0 6 -7 -16 -8 7 -2 -2
2000 -16 -29 -28 -32 -23 -39 -24 -20 -36 -36 -31
1999 -12 -24 13 0 -2 -11 -19 -29 -34 -36 -49
1998 -2 -17 -35 -23 -48 -34 -33 -10 -15 -15 -28
1997 -20 -11 13 6 30 6 -13 6 -1 -18 -20
1996 -11 -8 -57 -45 -55 -90 -73 -85 -132 -110 -114
1995 39 61 67 39 57 71 87 93 94 79 96
1994 -25 -27 -14 3 22 25 50 45 28 19 16
1993 9 10 21 23 18 13 20 29 37 50 55
1992 -3 -6 -35 -44 -24 -28 -12 -5 1 14 13
1991 -15 -24 2 7 18 27 34 40 59 44 65
1990 0 -24 -50 -49 -74 -72 -80 -83 -86 -100 -100
1989 -1 -17 -15 -1 -13 -19 -8 -4 -17 -10 -7
1988 11 -6 -19 -5 6 12 11 19 8 3 5
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
20 Yr Ave -4 -8 -7 -3 1 -2 5 0 -8 -11 -8
15 Yr Ave -5 -6 -5 0 6 3 10 1 -10 -15 -13
10 Yr Ave -6 -9 -4 3 9 7 14 -3 -12 -18 -14
7 Yr Ave -3 -8 -5 8 16 18 28 4 -8 -15 -9
5 Yr Ave -9 -15 -21 -12 -1 1 14 -12 -40 -51 -39
3 Yr Ave -9 -23 -22 3 19 20 45 0 -36 -51 -23

 

 

David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist

University of Missouri Extension David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu
Farm Management Specialist
Last modified: June 03, 2009