Tuesday, November 16, 2004
11:58 AM
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Tuesday, November 16, 2004
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Post Harvest Soybean Returns Basis, Cash Prices, Futures, & Call Options Southeast Missouri Cash Prices and July Futures |
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| The tables compare the post-harvest returns from storing soybeans based on changes in basis and cash prices with making cash sales on December 1 and January 1 and buying July futures and at-the-money July call options. The returns are calculated from December 1 and January 1 to April 1 and May 1. Seasonally, corn and soybean prices put in a spring top in April and May. The returns are in cents per bushel based on 8.0% interest and 1 cent per month for on farm storage. | |
| Soybean Returns from December 1 | Soybean Returns from January 1 |
Soybean Returns from December 1
| Returns to Basis, Cash, Buying Futures or Call Options On December 1 | ||||||||
| Cash Sales Made on December 1 | ||||||||
| 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | |
| Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | |
| Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | |
| Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | |
| Year | Storage | Storage | Option | Storage | Storage | Option | ||
| ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | |
| 2004 | -62 | 236 | 298 | 253 | -58 | 234 | 292 | 247 |
| 2003 | -42 | -30 | 12 | -6 | -61 | 11 | 72 | 42 |
| 2002 | -17 | 2 | 19 | 1 | -14 | -11 | 3 | -12 |
| 2001 | 0 | -91 | -91 | -33 | 1 | -90 | -91 | -34 |
| 2000 | -28 | 36 | 64 | 31 | -16 | 57 | 73 | 37 |
| 1999 | -18 | -133 | -115 | -32 | -14 | -132 | -118 | -34 |
| 1998 | -16 | -99 | -83 | -37 | -19 | -105 | -86 | -39 |
| 1997 | -51 | 132 | 183 | 146 | -47 | 134 | 181 | 145 |
| 1996 | -21 | 43 | 64 | 36 | -31 | 82 | 113 | 82 |
| 1995 | -10 | 5 | 15 | 4 | -9 | 2 | 11 | -2 |
| 1994 | -16 | -40 | -24 | -28 | -22 | -30 | -8 | -23 |
| 1993 | -13 | 12 | 25 | 7 | -10 | 9 | 19 | -2 |
| 1992 | -16 | -12 | 4 | -6 | -15 | -7 | 8 | -8 |
| 1991 | 5 | -22 | -27 | -21 | 11 | -35 | -46 | -32 |
| 1990 | -13 | -26 | -13 | -15 | -21 | 12 | 33 | 15 |
| 1989 | -5 | -59 | -54 | -34 | -3 | -32 | -29 | -32 |
| ----- | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ||||
| 16 Yr Ave | -20 | -3 | 17 | 17 | -20 | 6 | 27 | 22 |
| 10 Yr Ave | -26 | 10 | 37 | 36 | -27 | 18 | 45 | 43 |
| 7 Yr Ave | -26 | -11 | 15 | 25 | -26 | -5 | 21 | 30 |
| 5 Yr Ave | -30 | 31 | 60 | 49 | -30 | 40 | 70 | 56 |
| 3 Yr Ave | -40 | 69 | 110 | 83 | -44 | 78 | 122 | 92 |
| 16 Yr Ave** | -17 | -19 | -1 | 1 | -18 | -9 | 9 | 7 |
| **The 16 year Average does not include 2004. | ||||||||
Soybean Returns from January 1
| Returns to Basis, Cash, Buying Futures or Call Options On January 1 | ||||||||
| Cash Sales Made on January 1 | ||||||||
| 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | |
| Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | |
| Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | |
| Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | |
| Year | Storage | Storage | Option | Storage | Storage | Option | ||
| ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | |
| 2004 | -31 | 212 | 243 | 183 | -27 | 210 | 237 | 177 |
| 2003 | -39 | -35 | 4 | -9 | -58 | 6 | 64 | 39 |
| 2002 | -19 | 34 | 53 | 35 | -16 | 21 | 37 | 19 |
| 2001 | -7 | -88 | -81 | -27 | -7 | -88 | -81 | -28 |
| 2000 | -29 | 51 | 80 | 51 | -18 | 71 | 89 | 59 |
| 1999 | -31 | -96 | -65 | -22 | -27 | -95 | -68 | -26 |
| 1998 | -10 | -44 | -34 | -22 | -12 | -49 | -37 | -27 |
| 1997 | -41 | 141 | 182 | 145 | -37 | 143 | 180 | 144 |
| 1996 | -20 | -13 | 7 | -9 | -31 | 25 | 56 | 27 |
| 1995 | -11 | 8 | 19 | 7 | -10 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| 1994 | -9 | -69 | -60 | -36 | -15 | -59 | -44 | -33 |
| 1993 | -8 | 11 | 19 | 7 | -5 | 8 | 13 | -2 |
| 1992 | -13 | 8 | 21 | 6 | -12 | 13 | 25 | 7 |
| 1991 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 8 | -2 | -11 |
| 1990 | -12 | -16 | -4 | -10 | -20 | 22 | 42 | 20 |
| 1989 | -6 | -115 | -109 | -56 | -5 | -89 | -84 | -56 |
| ----- | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ||||
| 16 Yr Ave | -18 | 0 | 18 | 15 | -18 | 10 | 28 | 19 |
| 10 Yr Ave | -24 | 17 | 41 | 33 | -24 | 25 | 49 | 39 |
| 7 Yr Ave | -24 | 5 | 29 | 27 | -23 | 11 | 34 | 30 |
| 5 Yr Ave | -25 | 35 | 60 | 47 | -25 | 44 | 69 | 53 |
| 3 Yr Ave | -30 | 70 | 100 | 70 | -34 | 79 | 113 | 78 |
| 16 Yr Ave** | -17 | -14 | 3 | 4 | -17 | -4 | 14 | 9 |
| **The 16 year Average does not include 2004. | ||||||||
David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist
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David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu Farm Management Specialist Last modified: November 16, 2004 |