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Tuesday, November 16, 2004
03:59 PM

 

Pre Harvest Soybean Returns

Futures & Put Options

Southeast Missouri Cash Prices and November Futures
The tables compare the pre-harvest returns from hedging or buying an at-the-money November put options with making cash soybean sales second Wednesday in October.   Seasonally, November futures make a spring high in second week in May and a summer high the first week in July.  The values in the box titled Net Return October, gives the net price from making cash sales, hedging and buying a put option.
Soybean Returns from Second Wednesday in May Soybean Returns from First Wednesday in July
   

 Soybean Returns From Second Wednesday in May

Buy the nearest ATM Put Returns to Hedging, Buying a Put and Cash Sales at Harvest            
              Soybeans                    
  Option premiums estimated from 1980 - 1987                      
                                 
  2nd Wednesday in May 2nd Wed in October   Net Return Hedge or Buy a Put Plus Buy a Call    
  - - ------ - -     October - - - - - -
  Nov Nov/Put Nov/Put Nov Nov/Put Change Change Cash Net Net Call May Oct Change Return Return
Year Futures Option Prem Futures Prem Futures Prem Price Hedge Option Option Prem Prem Call  Hedge Option
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2004 731 740 68 510 230 221 162 506 727 668 780 45 0 -45 682 623
2003 565 560 34 679 0 -114 -34 675 561 641 600 24 78 54 615 695
2002 463 460 25 524 0 -61 -25 525 464 500 500 15 25 10 474 510
2001 430 440 33 448 3 -18 -30 444 426 414 480 13 0 -13 413 401
2000 582 575 43 478 97 104 54 469 573 523 625 35 0 -35 538 488
1999 489 500 36 500 7 -11 -29 483 472 454 550 13 0 -13 459 441
1998 625 625 39 556 68 69 29 543 612 572 675 24 0 -24 588 548
1997 705 700 41 667 37 38 -4 673 711 669 750 29 1 -28 683 641
1996 789 775 48 738 39 51 -9 743 794 734 825 46 0 -46 748 688
1995 591 600 38 660 1 -69 -37 656 587 619 650 20 13 -7 580 612
1994 615 625 36 537 88 78 52 526 604 578 675 16 0 -16 588 562
1993 603 600 30 613 2 -10 -28 608 598 580 650 19 0 -19 579 561
1992 635 625 39 539 86 96 47 531 627 578 675 34 0 -34 593 544
1991 595 600 32 570 30 25 -2 581 606 579 650 14 0 -14 592 565
1990 675 675 37 625 50 50 13 626 676 639 725 20 0 -20 656 619
1989 717 725 48 552 172 165 124 555 720 679 775 25 0 -25 695 654
1988 741 750 48 790 3 -49 -45 771 722 726 800 25 11 -14 708 712
1987 585 600 50 545 55 40 5 524 564 529 650 25 0 -25 539 504
1986 530 525 33 472 53 58 20 473 531 493 575 25 0 -25 506 468
1985 590 600 45 507 93 83 48 504 587 552 650 25 0 -25 562 527
1984 725 725 38 608 117 117 79 605 722 684 775 25 0 -25 697 659
1983 651 650 35 837 0 -186 -35 826 640 791 700 25 137 112 752 903
1982 678 675 35 546 129 132 94 525 657 619 725 25 0 -25 632 594
1981 789 800 46 672 128 117 82 628 745 710 850 25 0 -25 720 685
1980 651 650 35 822 0 -171 -35 780 609 745 700 25 122 97 706 842
    ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
25 Yr Ave 630 632 40 600 60 30 20 591 621 611 680 25 15 -9 612 602
20 Yr Ave 613 615 40 576 56 37 16 571 608 586 663 25 6 -18 590 568
15 Yr Ave 606 607 39 576 49 30 11 573 603 583 654 24 8 -17 586 567
10 Yr Ave 597 598 41 576 48 21 8 572 593 579 644 26 12 -15 578 565
7 Yr Ave 555 557 40 528 58 27 18 521 548 539 601 24 15 -9 538 529
5 Yr Ave 554 555 41 528 66 26 25 524 550 549 597 26 21 -6 544 543
3 Yr Ave 586 587 42 571 77 15 34 569 584 603 627 28 34 6 590 609

 

Soybean Returns From First Wednesday in July

      Returns to Hedging, Buying a Put and Cash Sales at Harvest            
              Soybeans                    
         Option premiums estimated from 1980 - 1987                        
                                 
  1st Wednesday in July 2nd Wed in October   Net Return Hedge or Buy a Put Plus Buy a Call    
  - - ------ - -     October - - - - - -
  Nov Nov/Put Nov/Put Nov Nov/Put Change Change Cash Net Net Call July Oct Change Return Return
Year Futures Option Prem Futures Prem Futures Prem Price Hedge Option Option Prem Prem Call  Hedge Option
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2004 661 660 50 510 147 151 97 506 657 603 700 36 0 -36 621 567
2003 556 560 33 679 0 -123 -33 675 552 642 600 78 78 0 552 642
2002 511 520 30 524 7 -13 -23 525 512 502 560 19 1 -18 494 484
2001 481 480 25 448 32 33 7 444 477 451 520 14 0 -14 463 437
2000 472 475 26 478 5 -6 -21 469 463 448 525 10 0 -10 453 438
1999 423 425 21 500 0 -77 -21 483 406 462 475 6 26 20 426 482
1998 607 600 29 556 44 51 15 543 594 558 650 19 0 -19 575 539
1997 586 575 18 667 1 -81 -17 673 592 656 625 13 45 32 624 688
1996 746 750 40 738 18 8 -22 743 751 721 800 21 1 -20 731 701
1995 613 625 40 660 1 -47 -39 656 609 617 675 17 3 -14 595 603
1994 581 575 22 537 38 44 16 526 570 542 625 15 0 -15 555 527
1993 715 725 59 613 113 102 54 608 710 662 775 38 0 -38 672 624
1992 614 625 41 539 86 75 45 531 606 576 675 20 0 -20 586 556
1991 539 550 30 570 1 -31 -29 581 550 552 600 9 1 -8 542 544
1990 677 675 39 625 50 52 11 626 678 637 725 24 0 -24 654 613
1989 702 700 44 552 148 150 104 555 705 659 750 36 0 -36 669 623
1988 983 975 88 790 185 193 97 771 964 868 1025 79 0 -79 885 789
1987 544 550 30 545 5 -1 -25 524 523 499 600 25 0 -25 498 474
1986 488 475 25 472 3 16 -22 473 489 451 525 25 0 -25 464 426
1985 548 550 30 507 43 41 13 504 545 517 600 25 0 -25 520 492
1984 683 675 35 608 67 75 32 605 680 637 725 25 0 -25 655 612
1983 646 650 35 837 0 -191 -35 826 635 791 700 25 137 112 747 903
1982 609 600 30 546 54 63 24 525 588 549 650 25 0 -25 563 524
1981 742 750 30 672 78 70 48 628 698 676 800 25 0 -25 673 651
1980 736 725 30 822 0 -86 -30 780 694 750 775 25 47 22 716 772
    ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
25 Yr Ave 619 619 35 600 45 19 10 591 610 601 667 26 14 -13 597 588
20 Yr Ave 602 604 36 576 46 27 10 571 598 581 652 26 8 -19 579 562
15 Yr Ave 585 588 34 576 36 9 3 573 582 575 635 23 10 -12 570 563
10 Yr Ave 566 567 31 576 26 -10 -6 572 561 566 613 23 15 -8 553 558
7 Yr Ave 530 531 31 528 34 2 3 521 523 524 576 26 15 -11 512 513
5 Yr Ave 536 539 33 528 38 8 5 524 532 529 581 31 16 -16 517 514
3 Yr Ave 576 580 38 571 51 5 14 569 574 582 620 44 26 -18 556 564

 

 

David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist

University Outreach and Extension David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu
Farm Management Specialist
Last modified: November 16, 2004