Wednesday, August 01, 2007
03:40 PM
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Wednesday, August 01, 2007
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Dead Cat Bounce Southeast Missouri Barge Cash Soybean and Corn Prices |
| The term dead cat bounce was coined by Roy Smith, Nebraska Farmer and Marketing Specialist, which describes the bounce in cash prices in the fall. It is based on the idea that even a dead cat dropped off the top of a grain bin it will bounce a little. The same is true for corn and soybeans prices. Once corn and soybean prices reach their fall lows in October, prices will rebound over the next 8 - 12 weeks. The rebound in prices is more of a function of basis improvement after harvest than a rebound in the futures prices. |
| Dead Cat Bounce - Cash Soybeans | Dead Cat Bounce - Cash Corn | |||||||||||||
| The Bounce in Cash Prices from October 1 through December 31 | The Bounce in Cash Prices from October 1 through December 31 | |||||||||||||
| Low price | High Price | Low price | High Price | |||||||||||
| Year | Date | Price | Date | Price | Change | Year | Date | Price | Date | Price | Change | |||
| 2006 | 03-Oct | $5.32 | 30-Nov | $7.02 | $1.70 | 2006 | 02-Oct | $2.56 | 30-Nov | $4.00 | $1.44 | |||
| 2005 | 10-Oct | $5.01 | 22-Dec | $6.22 | $1.21 | 2005 | 11-Oct | $1.55 | 22-Dec | $2.20 | $0.65 | |||
| 2004 | 12-Oct | $5.06 | 27-Dec | $5.92 | $0.86 | 2004 | 04-Oct | $1.78 | 27-Dec | $2.13 | $0.35 | |||
| 2003 | 08-Oct | $6.75 | 26-Dec | $8.02 | $1.27 | 2003 | 02-Oct | $2.17 | 12-Dec | $2.62 | $0.45 | |||
| 2002 | 09-Oct | $5.25 | 02-Dec | $5.92 | $0.67 | 2002 | 14-Oct | $2.41 | 19-Nov | $2.52 | $0.11 | |||
| 2001 | 29-Oct | $4.18 | 03-Dec | $4.61 | $0.43 | 2001 | 02-Oct | $1.80 | 03-Dec | $2.17 | $0.37 | |||
| 2000 | 27-Oct | $4.58 | 22-Dec | $5.27 | $0.69 | 2000 | 02-Oct | $1.75 | 29-Dec | $2.40 | $0.65 | |||
| 1999 | 26-Oct | $4.52 | 07-Dec | $4.86 | $0.34 | 1999 | 08-Oct | $1.69 | 28-Dec | $2.09 | $0.40 | |||
| 1998 | 01-Oct | $5.03 | 30-Nov | $5.99 | $0.96 | 1998 | 01-Oct | $1.81 | 16-Nov | $2.38 | $0.57 | |||
| 1997 | 01-Oct | $6.30 | 07-Nov | $7.40 | $1.10 | 1997 | 02-Oct | $2.55 | 22-Oct | $2.86 | $0.31 | |||
| 1996 | 31-Oct | $6.78 | 27-Nov | $7.29 | $0.51 | 1996 | 31-Oct | $2.69 | 25-Nov | $2.78 | $0.09 | |||
| 1995 | 03-Oct | $6.30 | 29-Dec | $7.51 | $1.21 | 1995 | 04-Oct | $3.01 | 29-Dec | $3.71 | $0.70 | |||
| 1994 | 07-Oct | $5.18 | 23-Dec | $5.84 | $0.66 | 1994 | 26-Oct | $2.05 | 23-Dec | $2.37 | $0.32 | |||
| 1993 | 04-Oct | $5.96 | 30-Dec | $7.16 | $1.20 | 1993 | 05-Oct | $2.40 | 30-Dec | $3.02 | $0.62 | |||
| 1992 | 15-Oct | $5.24 | 22-Dec | $5.85 | $0.61 | 1992 | 28-Oct | $2.00 | 24-Nov | $2.23 | $0.23 | |||
| 1991 | 25-Oct | $5.42 | 01-Nov | $5.84 | $0.42 | 1991 | 21-Oct | $2.40 | 18-Dec | $2.58 | $0.18 | |||
| 1990 | 30-Oct | $5.93 | 03-Dec | $6.10 | $0.17 | 1990 | 01-Oct | $2.27 | 26-Dec | $2.45 | $0.18 | |||
| 1989 | 13-Oct | $5.47 | 22-Nov | $6.04 | $0.57 | 1989 | 12-Oct | $2.38 | 28-Nov | $2.60 | $0.22 | |||
| 1988 | 25-Oct | $7.48 | 30-Dec | $8.13 | $0.65 | 1988 | 27-Oct | $2.66 | 27-Dec | $2.85 | $0.19 | |||
| 1987 | 16-Oct | $5.05 | 31-Dec | $6.12 | $1.07 | 1987 | 08-Oct | $1.63 | 10-Dec | $1.98 | $0.35 | |||
| 1986 | 07-Oct | $4.69 | 13-Nov | $5.13 | $0.44 | 1986 | 15-Oct | $1.32 | 15-Dec | $1.74 | $0.42 | |||
| 1985 | 07-Oct | $4.99 | 24-Dec | $5.53 | $0.54 | 1985 | 15-Oct | $2.17 | 30-Dec | $2.61 | $0.44 | |||
| 1984 | 02-Oct | $5.82 | 25-Oct | $6.40 | $0.58 | 1984 | 01-Oct | $2.69 | 16-Oct | $2.76 | $0.07 | |||
| 1983 | 26-Oct | $8.09 | 04-Nov | $8.63 | $0.54 | 1983 | 20-Oct | $3.33 | 15-Nov | $3.61 | $0.28 | |||
| 1982 | 04-Oct | $4.96 | 18-Nov | $5.83 | $0.87 | 1982 | 05-Oct | $2.01 | 13-Dec | $2.50 | $0.49 | |||
| 1981 | 01-Oct | $6.04 | 04-Dec | $6.46 | $0.42 | 1981 | 20-Oct | $2.40 | 04-Nov | $2.50 | $0.10 | |||
| 1980 | 02-Oct | $7.47 | 21-Nov | $9.11 | $1.64 | 1980 | 02-Oct | $3.06 | 25-Nov | $3.55 | $0.49 | |||
| Average Bounce - 1980 to 2006 | $0.79 | Average Bounce - 1980 to 2006 | $0.40 | |||||||||||
| Maximum (2006) | $1.70 | Maximum (2006) | $1.44 | |||||||||||
| Minumum (1990) | $0.17 | Minumum (1984) | $0.07 | |||||||||||
| Average Bounce - 1990 to 2007 | $0.82 | Average Bounce - 1990 to 2007 | $0.45 | |||||||||||
| Maximum (2006) | $1.70 | Maximum (2006) | $1.44 | |||||||||||
| Minumum (1990) | $0.17 | Minumum (1996) | $0.09 | |||||||||||
| Average Bounce - 1980 to 1994 | $0.65 | Average Bounce - 1980 to 1994 | $0.33 | |||||||||||
| (Excluding 2003, 1993, 1988, 1983 & 1980) | (Excluding 2003, 1993, 1988, 1983 & 1980) | |||||||||||||
David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist
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David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu Farm Management Specialist Last modified: August 01, 2007 |