Tuesday, November 16, 2004
01:56 PM
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Tuesday, November 16, 2004
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Post Harvest Corn Returns Basis, Cash Prices, Futures, & Call Options Southeast Missouri Cash Prices and July Futures |
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| The tables compare the post-harvest returns from storing soybeans based on changes in basis and cash prices with making cash sales on December 1 and January 1 and buying July futures and at-the-money July call options. The returns are calculated from December 1 and January 1 to April 1 and May 1. Seasonally, corn and soybean prices put in a spring top in April and May. The returns are in cents per bushel based on 8.0% interest and 1 cent per month for on farm storage. | |
| Corn Returns from December 1 | Corn Returns from January 1 |
| Returns to Basis, Cash, Buying Futures or Call Options On December 1 | ||||||||
| Cash Sales Made on December 1 | ||||||||
| 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | |
| Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | |
| Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | |
| Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | |
| Year | Storage | Storage | Option | Storage | Storage | Option | ||
| ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | |
| 2004 | -27 | 52 | 79 | 61 | -23 | 48 | 71 | 53 |
| 2003 | -5 | -10 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -20 | -13 | -12 |
| 2002 | 2 | -22 | -24 | -12 | 1 | -30 | -31 | -14 |
| 2001 | 1 | -20 | -21 | -9 | 2 | -27 | -29 | -11 |
| 2000 | -10 | 16 | 26 | 13 | -18 | 9 | 27 | 12 |
| 1999 | -2 | -16 | -14 | -9 | 0 | -21 | -21 | -13 |
| 1998 | -4 | -35 | -31 | -17 | -1 | -43 | -42 | -19 |
| 1997 | -20 | 22 | 42 | 28 | -14 | 11 | 25 | 12 |
| 1996 | 8 | 77 | 69 | 54 | -10 | 121 | 131 | 117 |
| 1995 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 16 |
| 1994 | -9 | -21 | -12 | -11 | -10 | -26 | -16 | -13 |
| 1993 | 10 | 13 | 3 | -3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | -5 |
| 1992 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 0 | -8 | -8 | -9 |
| 1991 | -3 | 11 | 14 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | -9 |
| 1990 | -10 | 12 | 22 | 11 | -15 | 25 | 40 | 29 |
| 1989 | 5 | -8 | -13 | -11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | -7 |
| ----- | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ||||
| 16 Yr Ave | -4 | 6 | 10 | 7 | -5 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 Yr Ave | -5 | 9 | 15 | 12 | -7 | 7 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 Yr Ave | -6 | -5 | 1 | 3 | -7 | -12 | -5 | -1 |
| 5 Yr Ave | -8 | 3 | 11 | 9 | -9 | -4 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 Yr Ave | -10 | 7 | 17 | 14 | -10 | -1 | 9 | 9 |
| 16 Yr Ave** | -2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| **The 16 year Average does not include 2004. | ||||||||
| Returns to Basis, Cash, Buying Futures or Call Options On January 1 | ||||||||
| Cash Sales Made on January 1 | ||||||||
| 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/1 | |
| Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | Basis | Cash | Returns | Returns | |
| Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | Return | Return | to Buying | to Buying | |
| Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | Farm | Farm | Futures | July Call | |
| Year | Storage | Storage | Option | Storage | Storage | Option | ||
| ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | |
| 2004 | -21 | 52 | 73 | 53 | -17 | 48 | 65 | 45 |
| 2003 | -1 | -6 | -5 | -7 | -4 | -17 | -13 | -13 |
| 2002 | 1 | -11 | -12 | -8 | -1 | -20 | -19 | -11 |
| 2001 | -11 | -37 | -26 | -13 | -10 | -44 | -34 | -15 |
| 2000 | -15 | 13 | 28 | 17 | -22 | 7 | 29 | 18 |
| 1999 | -11 | -11 | 0 | -3 | -8 | -15 | -7 | -8 |
| 1998 | -6 | -19 | -13 | -12 | -3 | -27 | -24 | -16 |
| 1997 | -21 | 30 | 51 | 39 | -15 | 19 | 34 | 22 |
| 1996 | 13 | 44 | 31 | 15 | -6 | 87 | 93 | 74 |
| 1995 | -3 | 15 | 18 | 10 | -1 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| 1994 | -4 | -37 | -33 | -13 | -6 | -43 | -37 | -15 |
| 1993 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -2 |
| 1992 | -2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | -4 | -12 | -8 | -10 |
| 1991 | -6 | 14 | 20 | 10 | -3 | 5 | 8 | -2 |
| 1990 | -9 | 10 | 19 | 14 | -15 | 22 | 37 | 22 |
| 1989 | 0 | -28 | -28 | -17 | 1 | -14 | -15 | -14 |
| ----- | ------ | ------ | ------ | ------ | ||||
| 16 Yr Ave | -6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -7 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| 10 Yr Ave | -8 | 7 | 15 | 9 | -9 | 5 | 14 | 11 |
| 7 Yr Ave | -9 | -3 | 6 | 4 | -9 | -10 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 Yr Ave | -9 | 2 | 12 | 8 | -11 | -5 | 6 | 5 |
| 3 Yr Ave | -7 | 12 | 19 | 13 | -7 | 4 | 11 | 7 |
| 16 Yr Ave** | -5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -6 | -2 | 4 | 3 |
| **The 16 year Average does not include 2004. | ||||||||
David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist
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David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu Farm Management Specialist Last modified: November 16, 2004 |