Home

Tuesday, November 16, 2004
04:04 PM

 

Pre Harvest Corn Returns

Futures & Put Options

Southeast Missouri Cash Prices and December Futures
The tables compare the pre-harvest returns from hedging or buying an at-the-money December put options with making cash corn sales on the first Wednesday in September.  Seasonally, December futures make a spring high in first week in April and a summer high the first week in July.  The values in the box titled Net Return September, gives the net price from making cash sales, hedging and buying a put option.
Corn Returns From First Wednesday in April Corn Returns From First Wednesday in July
   

Corn Returns From First Wednesday in April

      Returns to Hedging, Buying a Put and Cash Sales at Harvest            
              Corn                      
  Option premiums estimated from 1980 - 1987                      
                Net Return            
  1st Wednesday in April 1st Wed in Sept     September Hedge or Buy a Put Plus Buy a Call    
  - - ------ - -     -     - - - - - -
  Dec Dec/Put Dec/Put Dec Dec/Put Change Change Cash Net Net Call April Sept Change Return Return
Year Futures Option Prem Futures Prem Futures Prem Price Hedge Option Option Prem Prem Call  Hedge Option
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2004 337 340 38 243 97 94 59 232 326 291 360 29 0 -29 297 262
2003 242 240 17 244 9 -2 -8 241 239 233 260 13 6 -7 232 226
2002 222 220 15 279 0 -57 -15 267 210 252 240 10 39 29 239 281
2001 238 240 21 230 15 8 -6 203 211 197 260 13 1 -12 199 185
2000 258 260 25 194 66 64 41 168 232 209 280 17 0 -17 215 192
1999 239 240 19 221 23 18 4 186 204 190 260 12 2 -10 194 180
1998 271 270 20 205 65 66 45 179 245 224 290 14 0 -14 231 210
1997 292 290 21 272 24 20 3 274 294 277 310 16 2 -14 280 263
1996 329 330 25 334 14 -5 -11 358 353 347 350 18 10 -8 345 339
1995 265 270 21 291 2 -26 -19 281 255 262 290 11 10 -1 254 261
1994 261 260 16 228 32 33 16 231 264 247 280 11 0 -11 253 236
1993 248 250 18 234 19 14 1 240 254 241 270 10 1 -9 245 232
1992 258 260 18 221 39 37 21 227 264 248 280 11 0 -11 253 237
1991 265 260 16 254 14 11 -2 256 267 254 280 14 3 -11 256 243
1990 262 260 14 236 26 26 12 253 279 265 280 10 1 -9 270 256
1989 258 260 23 238 25 20 2 247 267 249 280 14 1 -13 254 236
1988 223 220 17 303 0 -80 -17 288 208 271 240 15 61 46 254 317
1987 175 180 17 167 15 8 -2 162 170 160 200 15 0 -15 155 145
1986 206 210 17 162 45 44 28 147 191 175 230 15 0 -15 176 160
1985 268 270 16 217 53 51 37 227 278 264 290 15 0 -15 263 249
1984 305 310 18 287 23 18 5 295 313 300 330 15 3 -12 301 288
1983 303 300 18 363 0 -60 -18 348 288 330 320 15 43 28 316 358
1982 297 300 18 229 71 68 53 224 292 277 320 15 0 -15 277 262
1981 379 380 18 306 75 73 57 258 331 315 400 15 0 -15 316 300
1980 292 290 19 359 0 -67 -19 324 257 305 310 15 49 34 291 339
    ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
25 yr ave 268 268 19 253 30 15 11 245 260 255 288 14 9 -5 255 250
20 yr ave 256 257 20 239 29 17 9 233 251 243 277 14 7 -7 243 236
15 yr ave 266 266 20 246 30 20 9 240 260 249 286 14 5 -9 251 240
10yr ave 269 270 22 251 32 18 9 239 257 248 290 15 7 -8 249 240
7 yr ave 258 259 22 231 39 27 17 211 238 228 279 15 7 -9 230 219
5 yr ave 259 260 23 238 37 21 14 222 244 236 280 16 9 -7 236 229
3 yr ave 267 267 23 255 35 12 12 247 258 259 287 17 15 -2 256 256

 

Corn Returns From First Wednesday in July

      Returns to Hedging, Buying a Put and Cash Sales at Harvest            
              Corn                      
  Option premiums estimated from 1980 - 1987                      
                Net Return            
  1st Wednesday in July 1st Wed in Sept     September Hedge or Buy a Put Plus Buy a Call    
  - - ------ - -     -     - - - - - -
  Dec Dec/Put Dec/Put Dec Dec/Put Change Change Cash Net Net Call July Sept Change Return Return
Year Futures Option Prem Futures Prem Futures Prem Price Hedge Option Option Prem Prem Call  Hedge Option
  -----   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
2004 259 260 17 243 25 16 8 232 248 240 280 10 3 -7 241 233
2003 224 220 11 244 2 -20 -9 241 221 232 240 8 13 5 226 237
2002 242 240 16 279 0 -37 -16 267 230 251 260 11 23 12 242 263
2001 218 220 12 230 4 -12 -8 203 191 195 240 7 5 -2 189 193
2000 204 200 14 194 11 10 -3 168 178 165 220 7 1 -6 172 159
1999 205 210 16 221 5 -16 -11 186 170 175 230 5 7 2 172 177
1998 253 250 16 205 45 48 29 179 227 208 270 12 0 -12 215 196
1997 235 240 14 272 2 -37 -12 274 237 262 260 5 18 13 250 275
1996 365 370 32 334 42 31 10 358 389 368 390 21 4 -17 372 351
1995 287 290 20 291 9 -4 -11 281 277 270 310 11 10 -1 276 269
1994 229 230 12 228 7 1 -5 231 232 226 250 5 1 -4 228 222
1993 258 260 20 234 28 24 8 240 264 248 280 11 0 -11 253 237
1992 263 260 15 221 39 42 24 227 269 251 280 12 0 -12 257 239
1991 230 230 13 254 2 -24 -11 256 232 245 250 7 12 5 237 250
1990 281 280 17 236 45 45 28 253 298 281 300 10 0 -10 288 271
1989 272 270 19 238 34 34 15 247 281 262 290 19 0 -19 262 243
1988 356 360 44 303 59 53 15 288 341 303 380 31 2 -29 312 274
1987 184 180 15 167 15 17 0 162 179 162 200 15 0 -15 164 147
1986 182 180 15 162 20 20 5 147 167 152 200 15 0 -15 152 137
1985 246 250 16 217 35 29 19 227 256 246 270 15 0 -15 241 231
1984 303 300 18 287 16 16 -2 295 311 293 320 15 3 -12 299 281
1983 280 280 18 363 0 -83 -18 348 265 330 300 15 63 48 313 378
1982 261 260 18 229 33 32 15 224 256 239 280 15 0 -15 241 224
1981 352 350 19 306 45 46 26 258 304 284 370 15 0 -15 289 269
1980 307 310 19 359 0 -52 -19 324 272 305 330 15 29 14 286 319
    ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------   ------
25 yr ave 260 260 18 253 21 7 3 245 252 248 280 12 8 -5 247 243
20 yr ave 250 250 18 239 21 11 4 233 244 237 270 12 5 -7 237 230
15 yr ave 250 251 16 246 18 4 1 240 244 241 271 9 6 -3 241 238
10yr ave 249 250 17 251 15 -2 -2 239 237 237 270 10 8 -1 236 235
7 yr ave 229 229 15 231 13 -2 -1 211 209 209 249 9 7 -1 208 208
5 yr ave 229 228 14 238 8 -9 -6 222 214 217 248 9 9 0 214 217
3 yr ave 242 240 15 255 9 -14 -6 247 233 241 260 10 13 3 236 244

 

David Reinbott
reinbottd@missouri.edu
Agriculture Business Specialist

University Outreach and Extension David Reinbott, reinbottd@missouri.edu
Farm Management Specialist
Last modified: November 16, 2004