Wheat Management

 Wheat production information is available at  http://www.psu.missouri.edu/cropsys/Wheat/.  

This web page contains variety performance testing from several Universities along with general production information.  The 2004 University of Missouri Crop Performance books are in the office, also.  Another good reference available is a $4.00 Wheat Production Guide that the University published this past winter.  When selecting a variety consider yield potential, test weight, disease and insect package, heading date and maturity date.

            Consider the quality of the wheat seed you select.  If you plan to use saved seed be sure it is properly cleaned.  Cleaning the seed will remove small and/or shrunken kernels, which may be infected by seed-borne pathogens.  You may also want to consider a fungicide seed treatment.  It is also recommended to have a germination test done.  Knowing the germination rate will allow for accurate seeding rates.   Typically, wheat with a germination below 80% should be avoided.  Seed quality also includes seed size based on thousand kernel weight (TKW).  If possible select a seed with a TKW of 30 grams or higher because these seeds tend to have increased fall tiller number and seedling vigor. 

            Wheat does not tolerate wet feet, therefore select well drained fields and improve drainage in wet spots.   Applying 15-25 lbs of nitrogen along with P and K following corn, grain sorghum or rice can improve crop health and root system.  Phosphorus is essential for good fall and early spring growth.  Target P level for wheat is 45 lb P/Acre.  If unsure of your soil nutrient levels, consider having your soil tested.

            Optimum planting date can be a challenge and is dictated by weather and harvest of the previous crop.  With this in mind, the University of Kentucky recommends a planting date period of October 10 through October 30 for Kentucky.  The University of Missouri’s optimal planting date is based on Hessian fly free date which is October 14.  Wheat planted prior to this date is at increased risk of yield loss associated with Hessian fly, aphid feeding, barley yellow dwarf virus, as well as excessive fall growth which increases the risk of spring freeze injury.  Another date to consider is the average first frost which for Scott County is approximately October 30.  Although wheat will germinate in soil temperatures as low as 40 degrees, planting later than November 1 increases the risk of poor fall tiller development, winter injury, and heaving. 

            An optimal final fall stand should be approximately 35 plants per square foot. To obtain an optimal stand, base seeding rate on seeds per acre which should be between 1,300,000 to 1,500,000 million seeds per acre.  Ideal seed placement is between 1 and 1.5 inches deep when soil moisture is adequate.

 Wheat Weed Management

 Fall is the best time to identify and control ryegrass and cheat.  When scouting, keep in mind that in general these weeds will be heaviest near the borders and ditches.  Grass identification can be difficult for anybody.  The following descriptions could help you identify these grass weeds based on a couple key characteristics.  For more details or help on identifying these weeds feel, free to contact your local Extension office.

            Ryegrass has a “diesel-wash” appearance from a distance, and in general is a smooth plant (no hair).  Hoelon (diclofop) and Achieve (tralkoxydim) have been labeled for ryegrass control for several years and are strictly grass herbicides. A newly labeled chemical is Osprey from Bayer.  Osprey controls ryegrass and picks up some other winter annual broadleaves. This new chemical will also aid in ryegrass resistant to Hoelon and Achieve, since it is a different mode of action.  Another herbicide with the same mode of action as Osprey is Finesse by DuPont.  Finesse is a preemergence product which offers fair control of ryegrass and also aids in controlling garlic.  However, Finesse has rotation restrictions where only STS soybeans should be planted to avoid injury. 

Unlike ryegrass, cheat, in general is hairy.  Sencor (metribuzin) is labeled for tolerant wheat varieties, but must be timed properly.  A fall application of 2 to 3 ounces of Sencor per acre will provide some control of young cheat with a reduced chance of injury to wheat.  Apply Sencor to 1 to 3 inch cheat, and after wheat plants have 2 leaves and 1 inch secondary roots.  Another option labeled for wheat to control cheat in the fall is Maverick by Monsanto.    Maverick, like Finesse, has a rotation restriction where STS soybeans should be planted to avoid crop injury. 

The key to preventing grass weeds from becoming a problem in the spring, is to start scouting shortly after wheat emergence and applying the necessary product in the fall.  Fall weed control also reduces competition for wheat going into the winter.  It is also very important to rotate modes of action in order to prevent the spread of resistance.  As always, with any product read the label carefully.

 Wheat Insect Management

 In the fall, the primary concern is aphid management.  There are four species of aphid that could potentially attack wheat.  These include the greenbug, English grain aphid, Bird cherry-oat aphid, and the corn leaf aphid. 

            The greenbug can be a serious pest in wheat, because of the toxic saliva it injects into the plant producing yellow leaves and chlorotic spots.  The greenbug can be identified by its pale yellow body and dark stripe down the back.  More recent research conducted at Missouri indicates that thresholds for aphids are closer in line to Kentucky’s action thresholds for aphids.  Kentucky’s threshold for greenbug is 10 per row foot. Check out Missouri’s research http://www.psu.missouri.edu/cropsys/Wheat/MU_Small_Grain_Extension_and_Research.htm

            The biggest threat that English grain and bird cherry-oat aphids pose in the fall, is the transmission of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV).  However, controlling aphids at threshold levels is only a small part in reducing the risk of potential BYDV infection.  Management also should include destroying any volunteer wheat or grass weeds in the field, avoiding an early planting date in order to minimize the window that insect vectors can transmit viruses to young plants, and maintaining good plant vigor.   English grain aphids are pale green with long black antennae and cornicles.  Bird cherry-oat aphids have a mottled, yellowish to olive green to black coloration with black antennae and legs plus a red patch at the base of the cornicles.  One approach to BYDV management, focuses more on timely planting to reduce the amount of time for aphid populations to build up in the fall.  Again recent research from Missouri suggests that yield could be negatively influenced when aphid populations are above 5 per row foot in the fall.  Kentucky action thresholds for aphid management when BYDV is a concern are based on crop age.  30 days after emergence (DAE) - 3 aphids/row ft; 30-60 DAE - 6 aphids/row ft; 60+ DAE - 10 aphids/row ft.

            When scouting your wheat keep in mind to evaluate the entire field.  Aphid populations will generally be highest close to the edges, so making a decision to treat based on one location may not be the most economical.

Wheat production information was provided by Anthony Ohmes, Mississippi County Extension agronomist.    Anthony can be reach at 683-6129.  

 Marketing Outlook

 Corn prices continue to decline on warm September weather and no threat of frost in the upper Midwest anytime soon.   How much production could be reduced with a late September or early October freeze in the upper Midwest is still uncertain.  There is also still uncertainty on the frost damage back in August along with the floods in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota this past week.

Also pressuring prices is the negative September crop report.  In the report, the national average corn yield was increased 0.5 bushels per acre to 149.5 bushels per acre, while demand was left unchanged from the August report.  For the 2004 -05 marketing year, ending stocks are projected at 1.209 billion bushels up 300 million bushels from last year. 

Based on the history of past USDA crop reports, corn production will likely increase in future reports.  Dr. Robert Wisner, grain marketing specialist at Iowa State University, outlines in his September 15, Crop Outlook newsletter that we could see an increase in production from 98 to 230 million bushels.   Following is the link to his newsletter for more details.

http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/091504.pdf

Along with the potential of increased production, there is a question if USDA has overestimated exports at 2.1 billion bushels.  Much of our exports will be dependant upon the size of the China corn crop, which will influence how much corn they export.  There will also be a lot of low quality wheat in the world, which will go into feed and compete against our corn exports.  If we increase the United States corn crop to 151 bushels per acre and drop demand by 300 million bushels to 10.525 billion bushels, this will result in ending stocks over 1.5 billion bushels.

It looks like right now we are going to continue to see weakness in corn prices based on bigger crop prospects and less exports.  You can build a price outlook where prices do not rebound much until next spring or summer based on potential weather problems.   To the downside we could see July in the $2.00 to $2.10 price range.   For the December 2005 futures, the contract low is $2.35.   A strategy to consider if you have unpriced corn and on farm storage would be to sell March futures and use the storage to maximize the LDP on declining prices and set the basis in December and the first of January on the seasonal  rebound in basis.  If our production does get smaller and the export projections are met we could see $2.75 based on the July futures.

The link to the 2004-05 S&D tables are on my home page or go to: http://outreach.missouri.edu/seregion/Corn_S&D_2004-2005.htm

 Just as in corn, prices for soybeans for the month have declined on lack of any cold weather in the upper Midwest.  A bullish to neutral September crop report could not stop the price slide.  In the crop report, production was lower by 40 million bushels by dropping yields 0.6 bushels per acre.  Demand was lower by 40 million bushels with exports reduced 30 million bushels and crush 10 million bushels.   Ending stocks were left unchanged at 190 million bushels.    

World ending stocks for 2004-05 are projected at 51.54 million metric tons (MMT) a record.  Last year world ending stocks were at 37.36 MMT.  Brazil’s production is projected at 66 MMT compared to last years 52.6 MMT.   So our prices again out into the future will depend as usual on the South America crop.

Soybean yields in the United States still have the potential to vary quite a bit.  A 40 bushel national average yield gives us ending stocks around 280 million bushels.   But at 42 bushels per acre, ending stocks jump to over 400 million bushels. 

Technically, November futures continues to be in a down trend and the 50 day moving average which was support on the way up has become resistance on the way down.  The November contract broke the important support level of $5.50.  The next support levels in the November contract are at $5.25, $5.00, and $4.85.   Longer term it is hard to get very bullish, unless we see lower yields or have a repeat of the production problems in Brazil last year. 

The link to the 2004-05 S&D tables are on my home page or go to: http://outreach.missouri.edu/seregion/Soybeans_S&D_2004-2005.htm

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