June 18, 2003

The rain from last week and the cloudy days this week, have not allowed the wheat crop to dry down too quickly in the field. This leads to the question is it better to take the moisture dock at the elevator or spend the money to dry the wheat? Most elevators are charging a dock of approximately 3 cents per every 1/2-point of moisture over 13.5%. Based on a wheat price of $3.00 and 17.5% moisture, the moisture dock per bushel would be 24 cents but the value of the moisture shrinkage would be 15.4 cents. To make it economical to dry the wheat you would need to do it for less than 8.6 cents (24 cents—15.4 cents). The rule of thumb I use for fuel cost is .02 gallons of LP per point of moisture removed. In this example the LP cost would be 6.8 cents (.02 X 4 points removed X $0.85/gallon LP). Add in a couple of cents for electricity and you are at breakeven. This does not include any costs associated with in and out charges, spoilage, over drying, labor, etc.

If you are going to dry wheat, you will need to add some heated air. The rule of thumb is that for every 20 degrees the air is heated with a dryer the relative humidity is reduced by one-half and for a 10-degree temperature increase the relative humidity is cut by one-fourth. If we assume an outside air temperature of 85 degrees and 80% relative humidity and the air is heated to 95 degrees, the relative humidity would drop to 58%. Under those conditions, the wheat would dry down to 12%. For more information, I can send you a grain drying publication that includes the charts and tables for making these calculations.

The June 11 USDA crop report estimated the US 2003/04 wheat production to be up 560 million bushels from last year and ending stocks up 136 million bushels. Kansas and Oklahoma are expected to make up almost one-half of the production increase. World wheat production and ending stocks are projected to be down from last year. The wheat crop in the countries that make up the old former Soviet Union are projected to be down about one-third from last year. World wheat ending stocks are projected to be at the lowest level in 15 years. This is the same scenario we find in corn and coarse grains of increasing ending stocks in the US while the ending stocks in the Word continue to fall. Prices will be very sensitive to any production problems in the US or the World.

The seasonal price trend for wheat is to make a harvest top in mid-June and make a post-harvest bottom in late July and early August. Because of the anticipated production increases in the hard red winter and spring crops, I expect this price trend will follow again this year. This means we may even see LDPs before the summer is over. The key price levels to watch will be $3.28 in the December futures contract and $3.33 in the March contract. If these support levels fail, then we could see prices fall 20—30 cents before the next support levels are found.

If you are planning anyway to put wheat in the bin to dry, why not consider the strategy of hedging or forward contracting for August delivery to catch a potential LDP sometime after harvest. Then if you want to speculate on higher prices, buy a futures contract or call option to catch the seasonal fall rally into October through December. With our tight world stocks, I believe this is a good year for this marketing strategy to work. To price the 2004 crop, the best time would be when it is being planted in October.

Marketing information can be found at my web site: http://outreach.missouri.edu/seregion/fmmkt.htm

Monitor conventional corn fields for first and second generation Southwestern (SWCB) and European corn borers (ECB). Check 10 plants in 10 spots in the field. Look for small egg masses on upper leaves and whorls. Southwestern corn borers are typically the dominant borer in Southeast Missouri. SWCB eggs appear as a flat membrane on the leaf. They develop in parallel rows of reddish-orange lines prior to hatching. SWCB larvae are white with black spots and a brown head. Larvae will feed on the plant for 11 to 14 days then begin to tunnel.

First generation eggs are usually found on upper leaves. Shot holes on larger leaves indicate larvae feeding and could indicate that larvae have already began to tunnel. Check deep into the whorl to see if larvae are still present. Once larvae enter the stalk, insecticide applications are no longer feasible. Second generation which begins in late June—early July are usually found a node above or below the ear. This generation is considered most damaging. The most effective timing is at larvae hatching. Economic threshold for SWCB is when 25% of the plants have egg mass or small larvae.

ECB eggs resemble fish scales and are usually found on the under side of top leaves near the midrib. ECB larvae are tan with rows of light brown spots and black heads. Economic thresholds for ECB are when 50% of the plants are infested.

With soybean emergence, monitor fields for bean leaf beetles. Bean leaf beetle feeding is identifiable by the small round holes between major leaf veins. The beetle’s coloration or markings may vary, but they all possess a black triangle at the base of their forewings. Typically there are two generations in Missouri. Economic thresholds vary according to growth stage. During seedling stage, treatment is warranted when 5 or more bean leaf beetles and one damaged plant per foot of row is found. Past seedling up to bloom 10 or more beetles per foot of row AND more than 30% defoliation is present. Bloom to seed maturity 10 or more beetles per foot of row AND 20% defoliation OR 15 beetles per foot of row AND at least 10% pod damage. Also, take into consideration the beneficial insect complex when making a decision.

Stink bugs are attracted to plants once they start to bloom. Peak populations typically occur from August through September. Both green and several species of brown stink bugs may feed on soybeans, and proper identification is important because control recommendations differ depending on which species is most common in the field. Stink bugs feed primarily on pods and seeds. Feeding punctures are identifiable by the presence of small brown or black spots. This feeding damage reduces both seed quality (discolored, deformed) and quantity (aborted or shriveled seeds). Before applying an insecticide take note of the percentage of parasitized eggs (darker than normal) and other stink bug predators present in the field. Also determine the distribution of the stink bug infestations. Are the stink bugs clumped along the border of the field or across the entire field? Insecticide treatments are recommended once infestations reach two or more stink bugs (large nymphs and adults) per 3-row feet. Agronomy information provided by Anthony Ohmes, Agronomy Specialist in Mississippi County. You can reach Anthony at 573-683-6129.

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