Soybean and Corn Price Outlook

Weather and the August 12 USDA crop report will give direction to prices for the rest of the month.  This has been a year of major contrasts in weather conditions across the corn and soybean growing areas.   While Missouri, Illinois and parts of eastern and southern Iowa continue to suffer through a major drought, the rest of the growing areas in the Country are looking at average to above average yields.  This could result in large fluctuations in USDA’s monthly production estimates in 2005.  

Commodity and index funds helped to drive prices higher on the hot and dry weather; but they have also resulted in the price declines the past several weeks on forecasts of better weather.   The weather forecasts for the week of August 14 are for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures for much of the Mid-west.  If these forecasts are correct, we are looking at lower prices even if we have a bullish crop report on August 12.   

Going in the USDA report, the average trade guess for corn is 139 bushels per acre, which is down from 145 in July.  This would drop ending stocks into the 1.7 to 1.8 billion bushel range.  This is definitely better than 2.24 billion bushels but still indicates we have ample supplies in the short term.  Longer term for corn I am bit more bullish.  I believe we have good demand especially from ethanol and could see ending stocks of corn to start to drop once we get past harvest.  For corn you need to sell at harvest, I would use any rallies we may get from the crop report or weather to make sales.  If prices go lower, you have the price floor provide by the LDP, which is being paid at this time.  For corn you can store, I would monitor the LDP situation and look for an opportunity from late September through the middle of October to maximize your LDP returns.  For the basis, I would look for an opportunity in December and early January to lock in a basis of 5 cents or greater based on the March futures.

 For soybeans the trade guess is a yield around 39 bushels per acre down one bushel from USDA’s projection in July.  At 39 bushels per acre, ending stocks would be in the 150 to 170 million-bushel range (see table below).  At 150 million bushels, we should get another run at $7.00 especially if we have some hot, dry weather.   The longer-term impact on prices will be based on the crop in South America.  Their production has not increased as fast the past two years as previous years because of the drought and Asian soybean Rust problems in Brazil.   The past two years Brazilian soybean production has only average 52 million metric tons (MMT) down from preplant estimates of over 60 MMT.   If Brazil comes back this year with a crop over 60 MMT, I expect we will see soybean prices below $6.00.  My strategy for soybeans would be very aggressive in selling if price would bounce back to $6.80 to $7.00 based on the November contract, but also be very aggressive if prices break $6.40.   

Soybean Disease Update

                Soybean foliar disease has been slow to start up this season with the exception of brown spot which is considered an early season disease which can stick with the plant through the season.  Frogeye leaf spot is a disease we typically start seeing in low lying areas this time of year due to heavier dews and/or fogs.  Frogeye spores, like rust, needs leaf wetness for more than 6 hours to germinate.   There is some showing up in areas.  Variety tolerance is something to consider when making a management decision.  If you have not made a fungicide application, continue to monitor for late season diseases.  Unfortunately, thresholds are very difficult to establish with foliar disease.  Monitor weather and utilize field history.

            Soil born diseases are showing up after the deluge of rain.  Low spots have had abiotic stress from lack of oxygen.  In addition, diseases caused by organisms such as Phytophthora and Fusarium have emerged.  Sudden death syndrome (SDS) caused by Fusarium is appearing in several fields.  The initial symptoms of this disease are yellow blotches between the leaf veins.  These blotches spread between veins then turn brown.  Disease severity depends on stage of soybean development, variety, and weather.  Under severe cases losses can be high; however, average losses from SDS are between 5-15%.  The drought stressed followed by a good rain and good growing conditions are some possible reasons for the wide spread appearance.  Management suggestions include, improve drainage, rotate crops, variety selection, stagger planting dates, and avoid crop stress. 

Late Season Insect Pests

Soybeans

                Currently, insect pressure has been moderate to low in many fields.  Spider mites were at elevated levels in some fields prior to the rain.  Continue to monitor for pod feeding insects such as stink bug and podworm/corn earworm.  I have seen some stink bugs in fields; however, I have not found threshold levels as of this week.  Threshold for stink bugs are 12 insects in 15 sweeps of a net or 2 per 3 feet of row.  No podworm/corn earworm reports.  The threshold for this insect is 1 per foot of row.  Soybean aphids have made their appearance in northern Missouri.  As you scout your fields monitor for this pest as well since it was found all the down into Arkansas last season.  Current thresholds are 250 aphids per plant. 

Grain sorghum

                Most grain sorghum/milo has headed, flowered and entering milk stage.  For late emerging milo that is still flowering, monitor for midge.  Midge are orange colored flies the size of a mosquito.  Check early morning or evening when things are calm.  Threshold is average of 1 midge per head.  Late season worms include webworm, armyworm and corn earworm.  Webworm thresholds are 5 per head.  Armyworm/corn earworm has a threshold of 1 per head.  Use a bucket or flat surface to slap milo heads onto to dislodge feeding worms.  

 Corn Harvest: Take Steps to Reduce Potential Aflatoxin Problems

                Corn harvest is coming soon.  Keep in mind that we had some drought stress on the dry land corn and corners.  Drought stress during pollination and warm temperatures favor the development of Aspergillus fungus in the ears.  Aspergillus produces the dreaded mycotoxin: aflatoxin.

Try to reduce mechanical damage to grain by setting combines correctly.  Increase fan speed to clean out lightweight and undeveloped kernels, which are more likely to be contaminated.

Aflatoxin will occur on grain in the field, but much more will develop in wet, warm corn stored on a truck or in a grain tank overnight.  The fungus grows best when 18% moisture corn is stored at 86 degrees F.  To help avoid this problem, promptly harvest corn.  Harvest at 22-24% moisture and dry it to 15% moisture within 24 hours of harvest.  If you intend to store grain for an extended period, dry down to at least 12-13% moisture to stop aflatoxin development.

Non-irrigated, insect damaged corn fields are more likely to experience aflatoxin problems, however in order to avoid post-harvest problems all corn should not be stored at greater than 15% moisture for more than 24 hours.

 Soybean Rust Update

The sentinel plot/field program established in the U.S., so far, is working well.  At the time of publication there has been not rust reported in fields or sentinel plots in the Mid-South.  The extreme southern parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and northern Florida have confirmed rust in soybeans at low levels.  Hurricane Dennis brought much needed rain to the area.  There were concerns about spore movement from Dennis, however, spore levels and area of infection in the South has been extremely low, especially around the time Dennis moved through Florida and Alabama.  Experts believe that spore movement north of central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina was minimal due to dilution factors which include small infection areas and distance from infection areas to here. 

Asian soybean rust was identified and confirmed in a soybean field in Baldwin County, Alabama, which is on the Florida border, on July 12.  Spraying of fungicides in Southern Alabama started soon after rust was confirmed in a sentinel plot in Baldwin Co., Alabama on June 28.  Since the July 12 find, sentinel plots in George County, Mississippi, close to Alabama site and 4 counties in Georgia have confirmed rust.  Although these are small areas when comparing all of soybean production areas, it does indicate that soybean rust has moved out from the original Florida kudzu confirmations.

The lack of rust activity in the Mid-South does not mean soybean growers are out of the woods.  Early planted beans are still developing and there are several acres of late maturing beans and double crop beans.  Continue to monitor and utilize the tracking website http://www.usda.gov/soybeanrust/index.shtml, to keep current with location of disease in the U.S.  A weekly update for our area and the south is posted to the Mississippi County website: http://muextension.missouri.edu/mississippi/ag.shtml

Also, if you do not have access to the internet and have questions about current situations contact a University of Missouri Extension office.  The number for this office is (573) 545-3516.

 Palmer (pigweed) amaranth Glyphosate Resistance Suspected in Georgia

                Weed scientists are investigating a Palmer pigweed which is showing what is currently being called “probable” resistance to glyphosate.  The Delta Farm Press will run the story this week.  The pigweed was reported to weed scientist last season and Monsanto was notified this June.  Nothing has been confirmed and further testing will be conducted. 

            It is very important to rotate and incorporated various modes of actions in order to avoid resistance problems.

Determining the Last Irrigation for Soybeans

The table below should help you to decide when to terminate soybean irrigation.  Soybean irrigation can be  terminated at full seed or growth stage R6.  R6 can be identified by checking the pods at the four uppermost nodes on the main stem with a fully developed leaf.  In general, if  2/3’s of the pods have full-size “green beans” that are touching in the pods, then irrigation can be terminated.  For clay loam soils, termination should occur when 1/3 of the pods have touching beans, and for coarse sands, when all the pods have touching beans.  
 

University of Missouri, Lincoln University, U.S. Department of Agriculture & Local Extension Councils Cooperating
University of Missouri  Extension does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, religion, age,
disability or status as a Vietnam-era veteran in employment or programs