Grain marketing commentary
Agriculture Business Specialist
University of Missouri Extension
April 25, 2017
Old crop and new crop futures seem to be in a trading range until there is a better idea on supply. From the USDA March 31 planting intentions report, corn acres are projected at 90.0 million up 4.0 million from 2016. USDA will give their first 2017 supply and demand estimate in the May 10 report. At a trend line yield of 169.0 bushels/acre, ending stocks would fall 500,000 bushels to 1.8 billion. If the final yield is 7.0 bushels below trend at 162.0, ending stocks fall to 1.3 billion bushels. It points out the how the planting and growing season will impact ending stocks and price.
Technically, the July futures has support at $3.62 and resistance at $3.80. December futures has support at $3.78 and resistance at $3.96. Both futures contracts recently put in a morning star candlestick pattern, which opens the door for a potential rally. Due to fewer acres and the need for a good yield, should provide price support and the potential of significantly higher prices on adverse weather this spring and summer.
Soybean acres are projected to be up over 6.0 million from last year to 89.5 million. Acres could easily go higher on fewer corn acres if wet weather and flooding persists into mid- May. At a trend line yield of 48.0 bushels/acre, ending stocks would jump over 90 million bushels to 533 million bushels.
Technically, July futures has support at $9.50 and resistance $10.10. November futures support is at $9.50 and resistance at $9.80. At this time, rallies will be limited due to the big soybean crop from South America and the potential big crop in the United States.
Wheat acres are projected at 46.1 million acres, which is 4.0 million acres less than last year. With trend line yields, wheat ending stocks would fall 250 million bushels to 880 million. There is sill a lot of wheat but getting smaller.
Technically, July 2017 futures has support in the $4.15 to $4.20 range and resistance is in the $4.45 to $4.50 price range.
Cotton acres are projected to be up 2.1 million to 12.23 million. Ending stocks would jump from 4.5 to 7.0 million bales.
It is important for a cotton producer to remain in close contact with his cotton buyer to get the most current price quotes.
Technically, December 2017 cotton futures has rallied back to 75 cents. Support is in the 72.5 to 73 cent range.
Rice acres were projected at 2.626 million down over 500,000 acres from last year. Ending stocks could fall from 52.1 million to under 33 million. This should give better pricing opportunities going forward.
For cash rice quotes, contact your rice buyer to get the most current price quotes and cash price outlook.
Technically, May rice futures have fallen sharply the past 8 trading sessions. Price support is at $9.20 and resistance is at $10.20.