It’s certainly sad when we hear about the tragic floods that have occurred recently in Iowa and other states.  For those of us that were around in 1993, it brings back memories of the floods that year, and makes us ask if we are headed that way again. 

Recently, Dr. Pat Guinan sent some information to me comparing this year with 1993.  Dr. Guinan is an Extension Assistant Professor in Climatology and Missouri State Climatologist.  The information originated with Frank Richards, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

While there are some similarities, there are major differences in the two weather patterns.

What is similar?  First of all, the season this year is starting out with flooding which is comparable to the onset of the 1993 flooding, with major flooding in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  Generally, the area affected is similar.  Finally, both 2008 and 1993 experienced cool and relatively wet months of April and May.

But there are differences between 2008 and 1993 as well.  First, the current flooding pattern is somewhat east this year compared to 1993.  In 1993, the Missouri River was a greater contributor to flooding than it is this year.  Also, there is flooding in southern Indiana this year which did not occur in 1993.

Many of the other comparisons will depend on what the rest of 2008 holds for us.  In 1993, for example, we had four weeks of continuing heavy rains.  While some areas have seen a lot of rain recently, the pattern for continuing heavy rains has not been set so far.  Remember, however, that much of the rain in 1993 occurred in July.

In 1993, there was a longer period of rain which resulted in uniformly high totals.  So far in 2008, we are not seeing that uniform pattern.  For example, roughly half of Iowa counties have been impacted so far in 2008, but all 99 Iowa counties were declared disaster areas in 1993.

The duration of flooding also presents a contrast between the two years.  The flooding this year is expected to be ongoing for weeks.  Depending on future rainfall, the flooding may or may not continue.  In contrast, the length of time that continuous flooding occurred ran for more than six months for some areas along the Mississippi River in 1993.

In some areas, the river crests have already surpassed the levels observed in 1993.  In other areas, the comparisons between the two years are only minimal.

So will 2008 go down in history as another flood year, comparable to 1993?  The extent of the flooding this year will be dependent on what happens over the next few weeks.  Hopefully, the rain will abate.  But if it continues, we may find the comparisons between the two years all too uncomfortable.