Significant Trends
Affecting the State and Its Localities
Despite the diversity of locations,
some general trends are producing
state, regional and local effects. It
is necessary for University of Missouri Extension program planning and
delivery to assess how general trends
are affecting each region of the
state. This environmental scanning and
analysis function will be strengthened
to include development of a
"state-of-the-county"
format, making local information and
change available throughout the state.
Following are recent "state of
the state" trends identified from
data-based environmental scanning:
- Regional Centers
- Employment
- Labor Shortages
- Economic Expansion
- Devolution
- Residential Preference
- Land Use
- Transfer Payments
- Diversity
Regional centers
are increasingly more important in the
lives of rural Missourians.
Regional centers are towns of about
10,000 or greater population that
attract workers, shoppers and seekers
of health and other professional
services from surrounding counties.
About 15 such centers exist in the
state, and it is likely that new
economic and population data will
confirm a strong and growing role of
regional centers. In 1990, there were
65 Missouri counties in which more
than 25 percent of employed residents
held jobs outside their county of
residence, a trend likely to become
more prominent.
Employment has
been increasing more rapidly than
population. Employment in Missouri
increased by 15.8 percent during the
1990s, far greater than the 9.3
percent rate of population growth.
Growth in employment began to increase
rapidly during the 1980s and continued
through the 1990s. Women entered the
work force in large numbers. However
by the mid-1990s, as employment growth
accelerated, relatively few women were
left to meet the growing demand.
Consequences included continuation of
a relatively great high school dropout
rate as students left school for
employment and a significant increase
in immigration among persons coming to
Missouri for work.
The future
labor force will face shortages.
With the baby boomers beginning to
reach retirement age by 2008, coupled
with the currently small Missouri
population in the 18-35 age cohort, it
is likely that there will be a labor
shortage, especially in higher-skill
and higher-wage jobs. In response, it
is likely that the currently employed
labor force will continue employment
to a much more advanced age. It is
probable that telecommunication
technology will replace travel for
many participants in the workforce and
that a larger proportion of the labor
force will become telecommuters.
Assuming that pattern of employment
occurs, there will be corresponding
change in where economically active
persons choose to reside.
Economic expansion,
significant through the 1990s, may or
may not continue. Missouri's gross
domestic product increased by 23
percent (in constant dollars) from
1990-97. Expansion continued at the
same rate during the remainder of the
1990s. The number of private-sector
employers increased from 129,606 in
1990 to 144,874 in 2000 - an increase
of 11.8 percent. Businesses employing
more than 20 workers increased by 18
percent. New business formation was
greatest in places with the greatest
population growth attributable to
immigration. The number of non-farm
proprietors (which includes
self-employed) increased from 398,000
in 1990 to 495,000 in 1999 - an
increase of 24.4 percent.
Local governments
are affected by devolution and
changes. Missouri ranks seventh
nationally in the number of local
governments. States with greater
numbers of local governments include
California, Texas and Pennsylvania -
which have much greater populations.
Missouri ranks high in the number of
counties, school districts,
municipalities, special districts,
etc. The number of special districts
very likely will continue to increase
as local governments seek ways of
meeting emerging needs. Changes in the
population distribution are placing
greater responsibilities on local
governments, but so too is national
devolution, which is passing on more
programs and responsibility for
distribution and management to local
governments.
New trends
in residential preferences challenge
local governments. During the
1990s, metropolitan areas (e.g.,
Kansas City, St. Louis and
Springfield) continued to expand into
the countryside. Concurrently
throughout the state, population
living outside the city limits of any
town (open country) increased by 12.8
percent statewide, while population
living within city and town limits
increased by 8.4 percent. This trend
is creating new challenges for local
governments, which are confronted with
problems of water quality, solid waste
disposal, emergency services, etc.
Land use
shifts affect agriculture. A
growing proportion of Missouri land
has been shifting from agricultural to
residential. More than 80 percent of
Missouri's 100,000 rural places
classified as farms can best be
described as places to live rather
than places to make a living. These
trends will continue to have an
influence on Missouri agriculture and
will have an impact on local tax
revenues.
Health care
systems are dependent on transfer
payments. Transfer payments
(entitlements) are a major source of
personal income and a financial basis
of support for health care providers,
especially in rural areas. In 2000,
transfer payments accounted for more
than 20 percent of total personal
income in about two-thirds of Missouri
counties. The total value of those
transfer payments was in excess of $22
billion - about 17 percent of
Missouri's total economy. Forty
percent is tied to Medicare and
Medicaid. If a person age 65 or older
moves to another locality, they take
their entitlement with them. If an
older person dies, Medicare is lost to
the locality. This trend is very
important, especially to rural north
Missouri.
Increased diversity
affects local communities.
According to the 2000 Census, every
Missouri county has at least some
African-American population, some
Asian population, some American Indian
population, some mixed-race population
and some Hispanic population. During
the 1990s, the African-American
population increased by 15 percent,
American Indian population by 30
percent, Asian population by 56
percent and Hispanic population by 92
percent. Missouri's racial minority
population increased from 14 percent
of total population in 1990 to 17
percent in 2000. The racial and ethnic
population has been increasing in
every U.S. state and will likely
continue. Rural and urban Missouri
will continue to become more racially
and ethnically diverse.