"At Your Service" Newspaper Column

 

Michael R. Milam

Agronomy Specialist and County Program Director

For Daily Dunklin Democrat-At Your Service

May 01, 2008

Crop progress behind schedule

            The Missouri Crop Progress and Condition Report for the week ending April 27 reveals what we already know. Our producers are behind schedule. This has been an interesting year in that we have been really wet and cold. To keep this in perspective, we have had a total of 21.77 inches of rain at the Cardwell weather station compared with 14.17 inches last year and 13.32 inches in 2006.

            Rice planting is only about a week behind last year and normal. This year we have nine percent planted and none emerged. We normally have 18 percent emerged by this time. Our cotton is about 5 percent planted which is five days behind last year and 8 days behind normal. Virtually no soybeans have been planted this year compared with 3 percent last year. Grain sorghum is also behind. We normally have about 14 percent of the state crop planted by this date and none this year.

            The state average for ground worked is only 24 percent compared with 62 percent last year. The normal is 73 percent. In the SE region, we have had 34 percent of the tillage finished compared with 89 percent last year.

            Statewide corn planting is at 8 percent compared with 43 percent last year and 66 percent for normal. However, if you look at the SE region, we are at 31 percent this year compared with 94 percent last year.

            The SE region also leads the state in wheat condition with a little over a third of the crop in the very poor and poor categories. Most of this is in areas in which the wheat was under water and where it was flooded for an extended period of time. But some of our wheat looks good and has begun to head. The Missouri average for wheat heading is 20 percent compared with 3percent this year and 1 percent last year.

            With the warmer days this week, I have noticed more field activity and it I hope that most people will be able to catch up. With the corn planting, some of the producers will opt to not plant corn if they can’t get it into the ground within a few days, but it is all right to plant corn in early May. I had talked with someone who had a contract to produce popcorn for a company, but the contract was to be null and void if the planting was not finished by May 1. The indications were that unless there were mechanical problems, the weather conditions were favorable for getting the seed in the ground.

            Our cotton producers are just coming into the optimum planting period. Usually early May planting is best but now with boll weevil eradication, the top crop has a chance to mature into harvestable bolls. The four years of the study conducted by Dr. Bobby Phipps, showed that the May 5 planting date was best but with the differences in weather variables (temperature and rainfall). Later plantings tended to do just fine.

            He and Dr. Genes Stevens work also showed that under most conditions it was better to leave a thin stand rather than re-plant. Although the cotton planted later did look good, it did not have the yield or the quality of the earlier planted cotton.

            We can expect warmer days and warmer nights for the next week or so and I didn’t see any possibility for frost so I hope that is behind us. However, I can remember that we had extremely cold nights in late May when I worked with the USDA in Mississippi State. It’s rare to have a frost that late but it can happen.

            So what can we expect for the rest of the season? I wish I knew. I did receive a link related to a Kiplinger Agricultural Letter dated March 14. The summary indicated that a severe drought would take place this summer. They indicated that corn yield could decline about 25 percent making a loss of 3 billion bushels. They also indicated that soybean yield could drop by 15-20 percent and wheat could expect a 10-12 percent loss.

            I sent a link to our state climatologist, Pat Guinan. I asked if he had seen these projections from his sources. His response was interesting. He indicated that he really could not make a judgment without knowing their sources.

            He also indicated that he used two sources for projections. His primary monthly and seasonal projections are from the Climate Prediction Center and can be found at

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ and at

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/. 

For May, we are projected to have below normal temperatures and equal chances for above, normal or below normal rainfall. However, we are at the edge of the region with above normal rainfall. The 90 day forecast is also interesting. The maps show an equal probability of having both below, normal, and above normal temperatures and rainfall.

            One of the factors affecting both the rainfall and the temperatures and rainfall is that there is a continued La Nina event.  Generally, La Nina summers translate to a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall in a region extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. In other words, there does appear to be higher drought potential this summer across the northern Corn Belt region. However, we are located in the lower end of this area which might not affect us.

            What this means at this time is that we really don’t know what will happen this summer. However, we have learned the value of irrigation and having the capacity to irrigate can make a big difference.

 

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